Articles

EUR/USD gains as Powell acknowledges upside risks to US labor market strength

401542   July 10, 2024 19:14   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  EUR/USD
  holds
  gains
  in
  a
  tight
  range
  above
  1.0800
  due
  to
  multiple
  tailwinds.
• 
  Fed
  Powell’s
  caution
  on
  the
  US
  labor
  market
  pushes
  the
  US
  Dollar
  on
  the
  backfoot.
• 
  The
  Euro
  gains
  as
  the
  far
  right’s
  defeat
  eases
  upside
  risks
  to
  widening
  French
  financial
  crisis.

EUR/USD
turns
sideways
around
1.0800
in
Wednesday’s
European
session
after
a
modest
corrective
move
from
an
almost
four-week
high
of
1.0850.
The
major
currency
pair
shifts
to
the
sidelines
as
investors
await
the

United
States
(US)
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data
for
June,
which
will
be
published
on
Thursday.

Economists
expect
that
core
inflation,
which
excludes
volatile
food
and
energy
items,
grew
steadily
by
0.2%
and
3.4%
on
a
monthly
and
annual
basis,
respectively,
in
June.
Annual
headline
inflation
is
estimated
to
have
decelerated
to
3.1%
from
May’s
reading
of
3.3%,
while
the
monthly
figure
is
expected
to
have
grown
by
0.1%
after
remaining
unchanged
previously.

The
inflation
data
will
provide
cues
as
to
whether
current
expectations
that
the

Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
will
start
reducing
interest
rates
from
the
September
meeting
are
appropriate.

Meanwhile,
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
signaled
in
his
commentaries
at
the
semi-annual
Congressional
testimony
on
Tuesday
that
rate
cuts
are
not
appropriate
until
policymakers
gain
significant
confidence
that
inflation
is
on
course
to
return
to
the
desired
rate
of
2%.

However,
Powell
warned
about
easing
US
economic
strength
as
the
labor
market
loses
momentum.
Powell
said
“Labor
market
conditions
have
cooled
considerably
compared
to
where
they
were
two
years
ago,”
and
added
that
the
US
“is
no
longer
an
overheated
economy.”

Daily
digest
market
movers:
EUR/USD
rises as
ECB
refrains
committing
a
pre-defined
rate-cut
path

• EUR/USD
  holds
  onto
  gains
  above
  1.0800,
  inspired
  by
  a
  weak
  US
  Dollar
  (USD)
  and
  a
  decent
  recovery
  in
  the
  Euro,
  as
  the
  Marine
  Le
  Pen-led
  far-right
  National
  Rally
  fails
  to
  gain
  an
  absolute
  majority
  in
  French
  elections.
  The
  US
  Dollar
  Index
  (DXY),
  which
  tracks
  the
  Greenback’s
  value
  against
  six
  major
  currencies,
  faces
  pressure
  to
  extend
  recovery
  above
  105.20.
• The
  far-right
  misses
  an
  outright
  majority
  despite
  leading
  in
  the
  first
  round,
  resulting
  in
  diminished
  fears
  of
  a
  widening
  French
  financial
  crisis.
  However,
  uncertainty
  about
  fiscal
  adjustments
  and
  the
  distribution
  of
  ministries
  remains
  high
  as
  the
  economy
  will
  be
  administered
  by
  a
  coalition
  government.
  Economists
  expect
  French
  President
  Emmanuel
  Macron’s
  centrist
  alliance
  will
  join
  hands
  with
  the
  left
  wing,
  also
  known
  as
  the
  New
  Popular
  Front,
  led
  by
  Jean-Luc
  Mélenchon.
• Meanwhile,
  sliding
  expectations
  of
  subsequent
  rate
  cuts
  by
  the
  European
  Central
  Bank
  (ECB)
  keep
  the
  Euro
  on
  the
  front
  foot.
  ECB
  policymakers
  continue
  to
  refrain
  from
  committing
  to
  a
  pre-defined
  rate-cut
  path,
  with
  fears
  that
  an
  aggressive
  policy
  expansionary
  stance
  could
  reverse
  the
  disinflation
  process.
• On
  Tuesday,
  ECB
  governing
  council
  member
  and
  Governor
  of
  the
  Bank
  of
  Italy
  Fabio
  Panetta
  said
  the
  central
  bank
  could
  gradually
  reduce
  interest
  rates
  without
  any
  hiatus
  to
  slowing
  inflationary
  pressures.
  Panetta
  added
  that
  policy
  tightening
  done
  in
  the
  past
  is
  still
  impacting
  demand,
  output,
  and
  inflation.

Technical
Analysis:
EUR/USD
holds
key
EMAs

EUR/USD
trades
in
a
tight
range
slightly
above
the
round-level
support
of
1.0800
as
investors
stay
on
the
sidelines
ahead
of
the
US
CPI
report
for
June.
The
major
currency
pair
stabilizes
above
the
20-day
and
50-day
Exponential
Moving
Averages
(EMAs),
which
trade
around
1.0750
and
1.0770,
respectively.
The
overall
trend
of
the
shared
currency
pair
has
also
strengthened
as
it
has
jumped
above
the
200-day
EMA,
which
trades
around
1.0800.

A
Symmetrical
Triangle
formation
on
the
daily
timeframe
exhibits
a
sharp
volatility
contraction,
which
indicates
low
volume
and
narrow
ticks.

The
14-day
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
reaches
60.00.
Should
the
bullish
momentum
be
triggered
if
it
breaks
above
60.00?

USD/CNY: Near-term weakness remains ahead of monetary policy moves – ING

401541   July 10, 2024 19:14   FXStreet   Market News  

USD/CNY
weakened
over
the
past
month
from
around
7.25
to
7.27.
Another
month
of
soft
data
has
increased
the
odds
of
easing
in
the
next
few
months,
ING’s
FX
analysts
note.

USD/CNY
weakens
in
the
past
month

“USD/CNY
weakened
over
the
past
month
from
around
7.25
to
7.27,
reflecting
capital
outflows
amid
market
weakness
and
broader
dollar
strength.
The
People’s
Bank
of
China
(PBOC)
usage
of
the
counter-cyclical
factor
hit
a
new
high
in
July.”

“Another
month
of
soft
data
has
increased
the
odds
of
easing
in
the
next
few
months.
However,
the
PBOC
also
announced
it
would
start
borrowing

bonds
to
sell
and
try
to
cool
the
government
bond
rally.
The
net
impact
on
yields
is
unclear.”

“We
are
adjusting
our
CNY
forecasts
weaker
as
yield
differentials
will
remain
unfavourable
until
the

Fed
starts
easing.”

Bitcoin price poised for a rally as momentum indicators show bullish divergence

401534   July 10, 2024 18:40   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  Bitcoin
  spot
  ETFs
  received
  the
  second
  consecutive
  day
  of
  inflows
  this
  week
  on
  Tuesday.
• 
  On
  June
  5
  and
  6,
  35,486
  BTC
  outflowed
  from
  BitMEX,
  marking
  the
  second-largest
  BTC
  outflow
  in
  the
  exchange.
• 
  Despite
  FUD
  from
  Mt.
  Gox
  and
  the
  German
  government,
  on-chain
  data
  shows
  investors
  quietly
  accumulating
  BTC.
• 
  Technical
  analysis
  shows
  that
  BTC
  has
  formed
  a
  bullish
  divergence
  on
  a
  momentum
  indicator.

Bitcoin
(BTC)
has
encountered
resistance
near
the
$58,375
weekly
level
during
the
past
few
days,
trying
to
break
and
hovering
just
above
it
at
$58,865
at
the
time
of
writing
on
Wednesday.
Concurrently,
on-chain
data
reveals
quiet
BTC
accumulation,
alongside
a
notable
outflow
of
35,486
BTC
from
exchanges
on
June
5
and
6,
marking
BitMEX’s
second-largest
outflow
in
history.
In
addition,
Bitcoin
spot
ETFs
received
$216.4
million
in
inflows
on
Tuesday,
marking
the
second
consecutive
day
of
positive
netflows
this
week.
Technical
analysis
also
indicates
a
bullish
divergence
on
a
momentum
indicator,
suggesting
a
potential
rally
ahead.

Daily
digest
market
movers:
Bitcoin
has
recorded
the
second-largest
Bitcoin
outflow
in
BitMEX
history

• According
  to
  on-chain
  market
  intelligence
  and
  analytics
  platform
  CryptoQuant,
  Bitcoin
  Exchange
  Netflow
  data
  from
  BitMEX
  has
  recorded
  the
  second-largest
  Bitcoin
  outflow
  in
  history.
  Historically,
  the
  Exchange
  Netflow
  indicator
  on
  BitMEX
  has
  shown
  a
  strong
  inverse
  correlation
  with
  Bitcoin
  price
  movements.
• When
  this
  indicator
  turns
  highly
  negative,
  indicating
  significant
  BTC
  outflows
  from
  exchanges,
  Bitcoin’s
  price
  rises.
  Large
  BTC
  outflows
  from
  BitMEX
  suggest
  that
  major
  investors
  withdraw
  their
  holdings,
  possibly
  for
  cold
  storage
  or
  strategic
  sales
  on
  other
  platforms.
  This
  behavior
  reduces
  immediate
  selling
  pressure
  on
  the
  exchange,
  stabilizing
  or
  potentially
  increasing
  Bitcoin’s
  price.
• Recently,
  an
  outflow
  of
  35,486
  BTC
  occurred,
  marking
  the
  second-largest
  BTC
  outflow
  in
  BitMEX’s
  history.

Bitcoin
Exchange
Netflow
(Total)
–
BitMex
chart

• On
  Tuesday,
  US
  spot
  Bitcoin
  ETFs
  recorded
  their
  second
  consecutive
  day
  of
  inflows
  this
  week
  of
  $216.4
  million.
  This
  surge
  indicates
  increasing
  investor
  confidence,
  suggesting
  a
  potential
  short-term
  uptick
  in
  Bitcoin’s
  price.
  Monitoring
  net
  inflow
  data
  from
  these
  ETFs
  is
  vital
  for
  assessing
  investor
  sentiment
  and
  comprehending
  market
  trends.
  Together,
  the
  11
  US
  spot
  Bitcoin
  ETFs
  presently
  hold
  reserves
  amounting
  to
  $49.14
  billion
  in
  Bitcoin.

Bitcoin
Spot
ETF
Net
Inflow
chart

• Additionally,
  data
  from
  CryptoQuant
  reveals
  that
  amid
  the
  FUD
  (Fear,
  Uncertainty,
  Doubt)
  triggered
  by
  Mt.
  Gox’s
  and
  the
  German
  government’s
  fund
  transfers
  on
  exchanges
  over
  the
  past
  weeks,
  certain
  investors
  are
  discreetly
  accumulating
  BTC,
  as
  shown
  in
  the
  chart
  below.

Bitcoin
Accumulation
chart

• Coinglass
  Bitcoin
  Long/Short
  Ratio
  provides
  insight
  into
  market
  sentiment
  among
  traders
  and
  investors
  regarding
  Bitcoin’s
  price
  direction.
  A
  high
  long/short
  ratio
  typically
  suggests
  bullish
  sentiment,
  indicating
  that
  more
  traders
  are
  betting
  on
  increasing
  Bitcoin’s
  price.
  Conversely,
  a
  low
  ratio
  may
  indicate
  bearish
  sentiment,
  suggesting
  more
  traders
  expect
  Bitcoin’s
  price
  to
  decrease.
• In
  BTC’s
  case,
  the
  long-to-short
  ratio
  was
  1.081,
  meaning
  there
  are
  1.081
  times
  as
  many
  long
  positions
  as
  short
  positions,
  further
  bolstering
  BTC’s
  bullish
  outlook.

Bitcoin
Long/Short
Ratio
chart

Technical
analysis:
BTC
momentum
indicators
show
bullish
divergence

Bitcoin
price
has
faced
resistance
near
the
weekly
level
of
$58,375
over
the
last
four
days.
BTC/USDT
is
testing
that
level
and
hovers
just
above
$58,865,
marking
a
1.3%
increase
on
Wednesday.

Additionally,
the
formation
of
a
lower
low
in
the
daily
chart
on
July
5
contrasts
with
the
Relative
Strength
Index’s
(RSI)
higher
high
during
the
same
period.
This
development
is
termed
a
bullish
divergence
and
often
leads
to
the
reversal
of
the
trend
or
a
short-term
rally.

If
BTC’s
daily

candlestick
closes
above
the
$58,375
weekly
resistance
level,
it
could
rise
9%
to
revisit
the
daily
resistance
at
$63,956.

BTC/USDT
daily
chart

On
the
other
hand,
if
BTC
closes
below
the
$52,266
daily
support
level
and
forms
a
lower
low
in
the
daily
time
frame,
it
could
indicate
that
bearish
sentiment
persists.
Such
a
development
may
trigger
a
4%
decline
in
Bitcoin’s
price
to
revisit
its
daily
low
of
$50,521
from
February
23.

USD/CNH to move towards 7.45 by year-end – Societe Generale

401533   July 10, 2024 18:39   FXStreet   Market News  

Third
Plenum
meeting
is
going
to
happen
next
week.
The
discussion
around
reviving
the
property
market
and
consumer
sentiment
will
be
its
main
topic,
Societe
Generale
FX
strategists
note.
 

Retreat
from
7.30
for
USD/CNH
may
be
short-lived

“Soft
inflation
data
in
China
overnight
reinforces
our
view
that
consumer
sentiment
in
the
mainland
economy
remains
weak.”

“The
discussion
around
reviving
the
property
market
and
consumer
sentiment
will
be
the
main
topic
at
the
Third
Plenum
meeting
next
week.”

“The
consequences
of
subdued
economic
growth
means
the
retreat
from
7.30
for
USD/CNH
may
be
short-lived.
Our
EM
colleagues
pencil
appreciation
of
the
pair
towards
7.45
by
year-end.”

Key highlights from Powell testimony before US Senate

401530   July 10, 2024 18:16   FXStreet   Market News  

Information
on
these
pages
contains
forward-looking
statements
that
involve
risks
and
uncertainties.
Markets
and
instruments
profiled
on
this
page
are
for
informational
purposes
only
and
should
not
in
any
way
come
across
as
a
recommendation
to
buy
or
sell
in
these
assets.
You
should
do
your
own
thorough
research
before
making
any
investment
decisions.
FXStreet
does
not
in
any
way
guarantee
that
this
information
is
free
from
mistakes,
errors,
or
material
misstatements.
It
also
does
not
guarantee
that
this
information
is
of
a
timely
nature.
Investing
in
Open
Markets
involves
a
great
deal
of
risk,
including
the
loss
of
all
or
a
portion
of
your
investment,
as
well
as
emotional
distress.
All
risks,
losses
and
costs
associated
with
investing,
including
total
loss
of
principal,
are
your
responsibility.
The
views
and
opinions
expressed
in
this
article
are
those
of
the
authors
and
do
not
necessarily
reflect
the
official
policy
or
position
of
FXStreet
nor
its
advertisers.
The
author
will
not
be
held
responsible
for
information
that
is
found
at
the
end
of
links
posted
on
this
page.

If
not
otherwise
explicitly
mentioned
in
the
body
of
the
article,
at
the
time
of
writing,
the
author
has
no
position
in
any
stock
mentioned
in
this
article
and
no
business
relationship
with
any
company
mentioned.
The
author
has
not
received
compensation
for
writing
this
article,
other
than
from
FXStreet.

FXStreet
and
the
author
do
not
provide
personalized
recommendations.
The
author
makes
no
representations
as
to
the
accuracy,
completeness,
or
suitability
of
this
information.
FXStreet
and
the
author
will
not
be
liable
for
any
errors,
omissions
or
any
losses,
injuries
or
damages
arising
from
this
information
and
its
display
or
use.
Errors
and
omissions
excepted.

The
author
and
FXStreet
are
not
registered
investment
advisors
and
nothing
in
this
article
is
intended
to
be
investment
advice.

USD/BRL eyes a support zone at 5.30/5.28 – Societe Generale

401529   July 10, 2024 18:14   FXStreet   Market News  

USD/BRL up
move
has
stalled
near
the
upper
limit
of
an
ascending
channel
at
5.70,
Societe
Generale
FX
strategists
note.
 

USD/BRL
moves
towards
5.30

“USD/BRL up
move
has
stalled
near
the
upper
limit
of
an
ascending
channel
at
5.70.”

“Daily
MACD
recorded
multiyear
high
denoting
an
overstretched
uptrend.
The
pair
has
embarked
on
a
deeper
pullback
after
this
test.
The
50-DMA
near
5.30/5.28
is
a
potential
support
zone.”

“Defence
of
the
MA
could
lead
to
continuation
in
up
move.
Recent
gap
levels
near
5.55
which
is
also
the
50%
retracement
of
recent
down
move
is
near
term
hurdle.”

Has the Sahm Rule been triggered?

401528   July 10, 2024 17:40   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Bloomberg
reported
that
the
Sahm
Rule
has
been
triggered
last
Friday.
In
fact,
the
recent
3-month
average
rose
to
4.0%,
which
is
50
bps
above
the
3-month
average
low
of
the
past
12
months.
For
more
on
the
Sahm
Rule,

check
this
post
by
Adam.

The
St.
Louis
FRED
database
though,
shows
that
the
Sahm
Rule
hasn’t
been
triggered
yet
as
it
stands
at
43
bps
because
they
count
down
to
the
decimal
place.

The
unemployment
rate
had
to
rise
to
4.29%
in
June
to
trigger
the
Sahm
Rule.
Instead,
it
was
4.054%.
The
tricky
part
here
is
that
almost
all
of
the
pickup
in
the
unemployment
rate
in
the
first
half
of
2024
has
been
due
to
new
entrants
and
re-entrants
rather
than
more
layoffs
as
it
happened
in
the
past
recessions.
For
more
you
can
read

here.

This
is
just
another
thing
making
this
cycle
more
complicated
than
it
already
is
🙂

AUD/USD consolidates near 0.6750 as investors await US Inflation

401527   July 10, 2024 17:40   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  AUD/USD
  trades
  sideways
  with
  US
  Inflation
  in
  focus.
• 
  Fed
  Powell
  cited
  concerns
  over
  easing
  US
  labor
  market
  strength.
• 
  The
  RBA
  is
  expected
  to
  leave
  interest
  rates
  unchanged
  for
  the
  entire
  year.

The

AUD/USD
pair
stays
in
a
tight
range
near
0.6750
in
Wednesday’s
European
session.
The
Aussie
asset
turns
sideways
as
investors
have
sidelined
with
focus
on
the

United
States
(US)
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data
for
June,
which
will
be
published
on
Thursday.

The
inflation
data
will
provide
cues
about
when
the

Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
will
start
reducing
interest
rates.
Meanwhile,

market
sentiment
remains
firm
as
investors
see
the
Fed
reducing
interest
rates
in
September
meeting
a
done
deal
due
to
easing
US
labor
market
conditions.
S&P
500
futures
have
posted
some
gains
in
European
trading
hours.
The
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY),
which
tracks
the
Greenback’s
value
against
six
major
currencies,
hovers
near
105.00.

On
Tuesday,
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
said
in
the
semi-annual
Congressional
testimony
on
Tuesday
that
escalated
inflation
has
not
remained the
only
risk
to
Fed’s
dual
mandate.
Powell
cautioned
about
easing
US
labor
market
strength
as
the
US
is
no
longer
an
overheated
economy.

Latest
US
Nonfarm
Payrolls
data
also
showed
a
slowing
trend
in
job
demand,
a
rise
in
the
Unemployment
Rate
to
its
highest
in
more
than
two
years
and
expected
slowdown
in
Average
Hourly
Earnings,
a
wage
growth
measure.

On
the
Aussie
front,
growing
speculation
that
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
will
be
the
last
to
join
the
global
rate-cutting
cycle
has
kept
the
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
on
the
front
foot.
The
RBA
is
expected
to
keep
its
Official
Cash
Rate
(OCR)
at
its
current
levels
for
the
entire
year
due
to
reversed
disinflation
process,
prompted
by
strong
consumer
spendings.

Dogecoin, Shiba Inu could extend gains as selling pressure declines, investors accumulate DOGE and SHIB

401522   July 10, 2024 17:39   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  Dogecoin,
  and
  Shiba
  Inu
  retail
  investors
  accumulate
  the
  meme
  tokens
  while
  whales
  distribute
  their
  holdings. 
• 
  Less
  than
  50%
  of
  the
  wallets
  holding
  DOGE
  and
  SHIB
  are
  currently
  profitable,
  selling
  pressure
  on
  meme
  coins
  could
  reduce. 
• 
  DOGE,
  and
  SHIB
  extend
  gains
  by
  nearly
  2%
  on
  Wednesday. 

Dogecoin
(DOGE),
and
Shiba
Inu
(SHIB)
extend
their
gains
on
Wednesday
as
the
selling
pressure
on
the
meme
coins
reduced.
Data
from
the
on-chain
intelligence
tracker
IntoTheBlock
shows
that
less
than
50%
of
wallet
addresses
holding
these
meme
coins
are
currently
profitable. 

This
metric
indicates
that
the
selling
pressure
on
DOGE
and
SHIB
has
reduced.
The
meme
coin
category
has
noted
a
surge
in
market
capitalization
as
the
market
recovers
from
the
recent
correction. 

Meme
coins
added
4.5%
to
their
market
cap
in
the
last
24
hours,
reaching
$45.83
billion. 

Dogecoin,
Shiba
Inu
on-chain
metrics
support
gains

Dog-themed
meme
coins

Dogecoin
and
Shiba
Inu
extend
their
gains
on
Wednesday,
recovering
from
the
broad
crypto
market
correction.
Data
from
crypto
intelligence
tracker
IntoTheBlock
shows
that
49.70%
of
wallet
addresses
holding
DOGE
are
profitable
at
$0.1093,
and
32.26%
of
investors
with
SHIB
in
their
wallets
are
profitable
at
$0.000017. 

The
percentage
of
investors
profitable
at
the
current
price
levels
is
under
50%,
so
the
percentage
of
traders
underwater
(sitting
on
unrealized
losses)
is
higher,
signaling
selling
pressure
on
the
meme
coins
will
be
relatively
low
as
traders
sitting
on
unrealized
losses
are
typically
less
likely
to
sell
their
asset
holdings
to
reach
the
breakeven
price. 

DOGE
profitable/
underwater
wallets
percentage

SHIB
profitable/
underwater
wallets
percentage

Santiment
data
shows
that

Dogecoin
and
Shiba
Inu
whales
have
distributed
their
holdings,
while
DOGE/
SHIB
investors
and
retail
traders
accumulated
the
assets
through
the
“dip”
between
July
1
and
10. 

While
whales
shedding
their
asset
holdings
may
be
considered
bearish,
accumulation
by
small
wallet
investors
has
aided
against
a
mass
sell-off
in
the
two
meme
coins. 

Dogecoin
supply
distribution 

Shiba
Inu
supply
distribution 

IntoTheBlock
data
shows
that
sentiment
among
Dogecoin
and
Shiba
Inu
traders
is
neutral
on
Wednesday.
DOGE
and
SHIB’s

correlation
with
Bitcoin
is
0.94
and
0.88,
respectively.
As

Bitcoin
sustains
above
key
support
at
$57,000
and
extends
its
rally,
the
meme
coins
will
likely
follow
suit. 

On
Wednesday,
Dogecoin
extends
gains
by
2.12%
and
Shiba
Inu
rallies
2.08%
on
Binance.
At
the
time
of
writing,
DOGE
trades
at
$0.1098
and
SHIB
at
$0.000016. 

The countdown continues as markets await the main event tomorrow

401521   July 10, 2024 17:17   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

It’s
just
one
of
those
days
where
tomorrow
can’t
come
soon
enough.
Besides
the
kiwi
today,
other
major
currencies
are
lacking
any
real
appetite
to
move
on
the
day.
In
exemplifying
that
sentiment,
EUR/USD
is
still
hugging
a
13
pips
range
only
so
far
today.
Talk
about
a
snoozefest.

We’re
pretty
much
caught
in
the
countdown
to
the
US
inflation
report
tomorrow.
And
that
is
leaving
traders
with
a
lack
of
conviction
to
go
hunting
today.

The
expectation
is
that
we
will
see
headline
annual
inflation
ease
back
to
3.1%
for
June.
However,
core
annual
inflation
is
expected
to
remain
sticky
at
3.4%
–
unchanged
from
May.
Once
again,
there
will
be
plenty
of
watchful
eyes
on
the
details.

These
were
some
of
the
key
takeaways
from
last
month’s
report.

The
release
tomorrow
will
come
alongside
the
weekly
jobless
claims
data,
so
there
might
be
a
bit
of
an
added
twist.
Just
be
wary
of
that
as
such.

For
today,
the
10-year
Treasury
notes
auction
will
be
the
only
real
item
of
significance
on
the
agenda.
So,
it
is
still
mostly
a
waiting
game
until
we
get
to
the
main
event
tomorrow.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $31.00 due to Middle East tensions

401520   July 10, 2024 17:14   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  Silver
  price
  appreciates
  due
  to
  concerns
  over
  escalation
  of
  the
  Middle
  East
  conflict.
• 
  Israeli
  forces
  deepened
  their
  offensive
  operations
  in
  northern
  and
  central
  Gaza
  on
  Wednesday.
• 
  Fed
  Chair
  Powell
  stated
  that
  first-quarter
  data
  did
  not
  support
  increased
  confidence
  in
  the
  inflation
  trajectory.

Silver
price
(XAG/USD)
gains
ground
for
the
second
successive
session,
trading
around
$31.00
per
troy
ounce
during
the
European
hours
on
Tuesday.
The
upside
of
the
safe-haven
Silver
is
driven
by
concerns
over
a
potential
escalation
of
the
Middle
East
conflict.
Israeli
forces
continued
their
offensive
in
northern
and
central
Gaza
on
Wednesday,
following
an
airstrike
on
a
tent
encampment,
according
to
Reuters.

The
militant
group
Hamas
reported
that
the
renewed
Israeli
campaign
killed
over
60
Palestinians
across
the
enclave
on
Tuesday.
This
could
derail
efforts
to
secure
a
ceasefire
in
the
Gaza
war,
with
talks
scheduled
to
resume
in
Doha
on
Wednesday.

Traders
anticipate
the
second
semi-annual
testimony
by
Federal
Reserve

Chairman
Jerome
Powell
and
speeches
by
the
Fed’s
Michelle
Bowman
and
Austan
Goolsbee
on
Wednesday.
Additionally,
attention
will
be
on
the
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data,
set
to
be
released
on
Thursday.

The
price
of
the
non-yielding
assets
like
Silver
could
face
challenges
as
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
reiterated
the
Fed’s
cautious
stance
during
the
testimony
before
the
US
Congress
on
Tuesday.
Powell
stated,
“First-quarter
data
did
not
support
the
greater
confidence
in
the
inflation
path
that
the
Fed
needs
to
cut
rates.”

Powell
also
emphasized
that
a
“policy
rate
cut
is
inappropriate
until
the
Fed
gains
greater
confidence
that
inflation
is
headed
sustainably
toward
2%.”
The
policymaker
noted
that
“First-quarter
data
did
not
support
the
greater
confidence
in
the
inflation
path
that
the
Fed
needs
to
cut
rates.”

However,
the
CME’s
FedWatch
Tool
indicates
a
70.0%
probability
of
a
Fed
rate
cut
in
September,
up
from
68.4%
a
week
earlier.
The
US
Core
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data,
scheduled
for
release
on
Thursday,
is
forecasted
to
remain
steady
at
3.45%
year-over-year
in
June.
Monthly,
the
Core
CPI
is
also
expected
to
remain
consistent
at
0.2%.

USD/CNH: A chance to break above 7.2950 – UOB Group

401519   July 10, 2024 17:14   FXStreet   Market News  

The
US
Dollar
(USD)
is
expected
to
trade
in
a
range,
probably
between
7.2820
and
7.2950,
or
at
least
in
a
wider
range
between
7.2700
and
7.3100
for
the
time
being,
UOB
Group
FX
strategists
Quek
Ser
Leang
and
Peter
Chia
note.

USD
eyes
to
break
above
7.2950

24-HOUR
VIEW:
“USD
continues
to
trade
in
a
quiet
manner
yesterday,
between
7.2869
and
7.2931.
The
traded
range
was
narrower
than
our
expected
range
of
7.2820/7.2950.
The
quiet
price
action
provides
no
fresh
clues.
Today,
we
continue
to
expect
USD
to
trade
in
a
range
between
7.2820
and
7.2950.”

1-3
WEEKS
VIEW:
“Last
Thursday
(04
Jul,
spot
at
7.3000),
we
highlighted
that
the
recent
buildup
of
upward
momentum
had
largely
dissipated.
We
were
of
the
view
that
the
current
price
movements
are
likely
part
of
a
consolidation,
and
we
expected
USD
to
trade
between
7.2700
and
7.3100
or
the
time
being.
There
is
no
change
in
our
view.”