Has the Sahm Rule been triggered?

Read full post at forexlive.com

Bloomberg
reported
that
the
Sahm
Rule
has
been
triggered
last
Friday.
In
fact,
the
recent
3-month
average
rose
to
4.0%,
which
is
50
bps
above
the
3-month
average
low
of
the
past
12
months.
For
more
on
the
Sahm
Rule,

check
this
post
by
Adam.

The
St.
Louis
FRED
database
though,
shows
that
the
Sahm
Rule
hasn’t
been
triggered
yet
as
it
stands
at
43
bps
because
they
count
down
to
the
decimal
place.

The
unemployment
rate
had
to
rise
to
4.29%
in
June
to
trigger
the
Sahm
Rule.
Instead,
it
was
4.054%.
The
tricky
part
here
is
that
almost
all
of
the
pickup
in
the
unemployment
rate
in
the
first
half
of
2024
has
been
due
to
new
entrants
and
re-entrants
rather
than
more
layoffs
as
it
happened
in
the
past
recessions.
For
more
you
can
read

here.

This
is
just
another
thing
making
this
cycle
more
complicated
than
it
already
is
🙂