IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 April 2025

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April 21, 2025 16:00

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

The ongoing trade tariff uncertainties continued to weigh on overall market sentiment as demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remained elevated. Spot prices for gold surged toward a new record of $3,385.33/oz while the greenback tanked during this session, driving the dollar index (DXY) below 98.50 while USD/JPY and USD/CHF also tumbled lower.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

With most European markets closed in observance of the Easter Monday bank holiday, trading activity could remain somewhat muted until the North American markets resume trading in the latter part of the first trading day of the week.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Conference Board LEI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After declining further in February due to consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turning more pessimistic, the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is once again anticipated to head lower in March. The ongoing trade tariff uncertainties and escalation have dampened both confidence and sentiment for consumers and businesses alike.

Central Bank Notes:

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Conference Board LEI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Easter Monday Holiday (All Day)

What can we expect from AUD today?

With Australian banks closed in observance of Easter Monday, traders should brace themselves for lower liquidity and irregular volatility today. The Aussie rose 1.5% last week as the greenback continued to lose its shine, with the upward momentum gaining traction as markets reopened on Monday – this currency pair rose strongly toward 0.6400.

Central Bank Notes:

The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

Easter Monday Holiday (All Day)

What can we expect from NZD today?

With New Zealand banks closed in observance of Easter Monday, traders should brace themselves for lower liquidity and irregular volatility today. With significant weakness in the greenback, the Kiwi rallied 2% last week as it breached 0.5900. Strong tailwinds remain firmly in place and this currency pair should continue rising this week.

Central Bank Notes:

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the yen has caused USD/JPY to dive over 5% in April alone. This currency pair tumbled under 143 last week, while intense selling pressures drove it toward 141 at the beginning of Monday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Easter Monday Holiday (All Day)

What can we expect from EUR today?

As widely expected, the ECB moved ahead with a 25-basis-point (bps) reduction in its three key interest rates, bringing down the main refinancing rate to 2.40%. This central bank is growing confident that inflation is on track to return sustainably to the target of 2%, as both headline and core inflation continue to ease, with services inflation also cooling. Wage growth has moderated, and firms have absorbed some of the cost pressures. However, risks to the Euro Area outlook remain, especially due to rising global trade tensions, which have hurt confidence and tightened financial conditions. The ECB also acknowledged that growth prospects have weakened and emphasized a data-dependent approach going forward. It made no commitment to further cuts, underlining that future decisions will depend on economic data, inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary transmission.

Central Bank Notes:

The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

Easter Monday Holiday (All Day)

What can we expect from CHF today?

With Swiss banks being closed in observance of Easter Monday, traders should brace themselves for lower liquidity and irregular volatility today. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the franc has caused USD/CHF to dive over 7% in April alone. This currency pair tumbled under 0.8200 last week and the downward slide is likely to extend further this week.

Central Bank Notes:

The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Easter Monday Holiday (All Day)

What can we expect from GBP today?

With British banks being closed in observance of Easter Monday, traders should brace themselves for lower liquidity and irregular volatility today. Cable jumped over 1.5% last week and the upward momentum showed no signs of slowing as this currency pair raced beyond 1.3350 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Loonie has strengthened more than 4% since early March as the USD/CAD dived under 1.3900 last week. Significant dollar weakness continued to drive this currency pair lower as markets resumed trading on Monday.

Central Bank Notes:

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

After diving as low as $55.12 per barrel in the second week of April, WTI oil prices rebounded nearly 6.5% over the last couple of weeks as it briefly climbed above the $64 mark last Thursday. However, this benchmark tumbled lower as markets reopened on Monday due to the ongoing progress of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, a result that could reduce supply concerns stemming from this major oil producer. Overhead pressures continue to remain in place for this commodity and prices are likely to slide lower as the day progresses.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 April 2025

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