General Market Analysis – 08/04/25

Volatility Remains High on Tariff Updates – Dow Drops 0.9%

Global markets experienced another volatile trading day yesterday as investors continued to react to tariff updates, with President Trump notably threatening to put another 50% on Chinese imports. US stocks remain under pressure but did not suffer as much as in the previous day’s trading. The Dow dropped 0.91%, the S&P 0.23%, while the Nasdaq eked out a 0.10% gain. Treasury yields pulled back from recent losses as traders factored in a resilient Fed, the 2-year up 11.1 basis points to 3.763% and the 10-year up 18.9 basis points to 4.183%. The dollar climbed again, with the DXY closing up 0.42%, while oil prices continued their decline—Brent off 1.66% to $64.49 and WTI down 1.53% to $61.04. Gold saw some sharp moves across the day but ultimately finished down 1.81% at $2,982.09 an ounce.

Gold Loses Some of Its Lustre in Tough Markets

Gold bulls may be forgiven for being upset with current market moves, as recent updates on trade have added more uncertainty to a market that was already under pressure—conditions that would normally lead to the world’s favourite precious metal climbing higher. However, gold has been on a spectacular run in 2025, gaining 21.8% from low to high, and some traders were calling for a retracement. The last couple of days’ trading has seen the dollar jump off a six-month low, and traders feel that this has added to the decline for gold alongside some portfolios taking profit to cover margin issues in other markets. Traders will continue to monitor updates across the board over the next few sessions, but more uncertainty should lead to gold finding a base at some point in the near future. However, as with all markets, volatility remains high and it’s a brave trader who picks highs and lows in these conditions.

Another Quiet Calendar Day Ahead

The macroeconomic calendar again has little to offer traders in the way of fundamental updates, and so they are expecting the focus to remain on global trade concerns and any tariff updates. The Asian session does see some Australian and Japanese sentiment data due out, but these are expected to be largely outweighed by trade issues, while there is very little on the cards once Europe opens. We do have some significant data due shortly after the New York open, with the focus slipping north of the border for the Canadian Ivey PMI data, which is expected to print at 53.2—lower than last month’s 55.3 result. However, once again, investors are expecting updates from the newswires and overall tariff evaluation to dominate market moves.

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