IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 March 2025
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 March 2025
What happened in the U.S. session?
The U.S. forex session was dominated by the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, which kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% as expected. The dollar initially rallied but retreated after the announcement, influenced by the Fed’s downward adjustment to growth forecasts in their revised Summary of Economic Projections.
Market participants priced in expectations for two rate cuts in 2025, aligning with the Fed’s updated projections. EUR/USD declined by 0.3% to trade around 1.091, pulling back from a five-month high, while GBP/USD found support around 1.2940. The Fed’s cautious stance on the economy and potential rate cuts later in the year contributed to increased market volatility. U.S. equities initially declined but rallied after the Fed decision
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
The Asia session is expected to be characterized by cautious trading and potential volatility, influenced by the aftermath of the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. Markets will also continue to digest the Federal Reserve’s decision from the previous U.S. session, which kept rates steady while hinting at potential future cuts, likely impacting USD pairs and overall risk sentiment. The typically thinner liquidity of the Tokyo session may lead to choppy price action or range-bound trading for many currency pairs. Traders are expected to focus on economic releases from countries like Japan and Australia during this session. Activity in the Asia session could set the tone for the rest of the trading day, with possible increased volatility in Asian currency pairs, particularly those involving JPY, AUD, and NZD.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
With the release of U.S. unemployment claims at 12:30 pm GMT, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is expected to experience volatility as traders assess the health of the U.S. labor market. Currently trading near 103.50, the index remains under bearish pressure, holding below key technical levels like the 100-day EMA and 104 resistance.
If unemployment claims come in lower than expected, signaling labor market strength, the DXY could see a short-term rebound toward resistance at 104.10 or higher. Conversely, higher-than-expected claims may reinforce bearish sentiment, pushing the index toward support at 103.20 or potentially testing the psychological level of 102.00.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. The economic outlook remains uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
- The March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) maintains the projection of two rate cuts in 2025 totaling 50 basis points, consistent with the previous quarter’s forecast.
- GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2025 (2.1% vs. 2% in the December projection), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.4%) and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2.0%).
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
- The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities will be maintained at $35 billion.
- The next meeting is scheduled for 29-30 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold (XAU) is expected to experience volatility today as traders await the release of U.S. unemployment claims data at 12:30 pm GMT. Currently trading above $3,000 per ounce, gold remains supported by ongoing global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The unemployment claims report will be closely watched for its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy expectations and, consequently, on gold prices. A higher-than-expected number of jobless claims could weaken the dollar and potentially boost gold prices, as it may reduce pressure on the Fed to maintain higher interest rates. Conversely, lower-than-expected claims could lead to a short-term dip in gold prices.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
Unemployment Rate (12:30 am GMT)
Employment Change (12:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Australian dollar (AUD) is poised for volatility today following the release of key employment data. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in February, meeting expectations, while the employment change showed a surprising decrease of 52,800 jobs, significantly below the forecast of 30,000 job gains. This unexpected decline has already caused the AUD to weaken, with AUD/USD dropping 0.3% to 0.6341 post-release.
Given these mixed signals, the AUD is likely to face downward pressure in the short term. Traders may interpret the weak employment figures as a sign of economic softening, potentially increasing expectations for future RBA rate cuts. However, the steady unemployment rate could provide some support.
AUD/USD, currently around 0.6330, may test support near 0.6274 if bearish sentiment persists. Resistance is likely around 0.6365, with a break above potentially targeting 0.6405. Market participants should also consider broader factors influencing the AUD, including global risk sentiment and commodity prices.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
- Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
- Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
- The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
- The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
- Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
- If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
- Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
- The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
- The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
with no major economic events scheduled, NZD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by global risk sentiment, U.S. dollar movement, and commodity market trends. The pair remains supported by a weaker USD, but upside momentum may be limited without fresh economic catalysts.
Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:
Support at 0.5770, where buyers may step in to maintain bullish momentum.
Resistance at 0.5830, a key barrier that, if breached, could push NZD/USD toward 0.5900.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
- The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
- Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
- Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
- Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
- Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
- The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
- The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to trade with a slight bearish bias today following the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to maintain interest rates at 0.5% yesterday. With no major news events scheduled for today, the JPY’s movements will likely be influenced by the aftermath of the BOJ meeting and broader market sentiment.
The BOJ’s cautious stance, citing heightened global economic uncertainty and potential risks from U.S. trade policies, may continue to weigh on the Yen. USD/JPY is currently trading around 148.1, having briefly surpassed the 150.00 level after the BOJ decision
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
- The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
- Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
- The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
- On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
- Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
- Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
With no major economic events scheduled, EUR/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily driven by U.S. dollar movement, global risk sentiment, and bond yield fluctuations. The pair remains supported by ongoing USD weakness, but upside potential may be limited without fresh catalysts.
Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:
Support at 1.0766, where buyers may attempt to maintain bullish momentum.
Resistance at 1.0950, a key level that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1000.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
- The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
- Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
- Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
- The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
- The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
- The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (8:30 am GMT)
SNB Policy Rate (8:30 am GMT)
SNB Press Conference (9:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from CHF today?
The Swiss franc (CHF) is poised for heightened volatility today as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announces its monetary policy decision at 8:30 am GMT, followed by a press conference at 9:00 am GMT. Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, which would bring the policy rate down to 0.25% from the current 0.50%. This anticipated move is driven by Switzerland’s low inflation, which has approached the lower end of the SNB’s 0-2% target range.
If the SNB delivers the expected rate cut, the CHF may initially weaken against major currencies. However, the franc’s reaction will largely depend on the SNB’s forward guidance and any comments on potential currency intervention. The recent strength of the euro against the franc, driven by improved eurozone growth prospects, may factor into the SNB’s decision-making process.
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
- Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
- Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
- In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
- GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
- There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
- The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
- The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
- The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
Claimant Count Change (7:00 am GMT)
Monetary Policy Summary (12:00 pm GMT)
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (12:00 pm GMT)
Official Bank Rate (12:00 pm GMT)
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from GBP today?
The British pound (GBP) is expected to experience significant volatility today due to a series of key economic events. The Bank of England (BOE) is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% during its March meeting at 12:00 pm GMT.
Earlier in the day, the Claimant Count Change data at 7:00 am GMT may set the tone for GBP trading, with any surprises potentially influencing market sentiment. Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech at 12:30 pm GMT will also be critical, as markets look for clarity on the BOE’s outlook amid economic uncertainties.
GBP/USD, currently near 1.30, faces resistance at this psychological level. Hawkish signals could push the pair higher, while dovish commentary may lead to a decline toward support levels around 1.2940.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
- The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
- CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
- While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
- GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
- The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
- Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
- Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
- The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
BOC Gov Macklem Speaks (4:50 pm GMT)
What can we expect from CAD today?
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is expected to trade with moderate volatility today as markets anticipate Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech at 4:50 pm GMT. Following the recent rate cut to 2.75%, the CAD has faced pressure due to trade tensions with the U.S. and concerns about slowing domestic demand. Macklem’s remarks will be closely watched for insights into the central bank’s outlook on inflation, growth, and future policy adjustments.
USD/CAD, currently near 1.4325, remains in a bearish correction phase, with support at 1.4240 and resistance at 1.4370. A dovish tone from Macklem could weaken the CAD further, potentially pushing USD/CAD toward 1.4375 or higher. Conversely, any hawkish signals may strengthen the CAD and test lower support levels. Overall, CAD movements today will hinge on Macklem’s commentary and broader market sentiment.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
- The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
- The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
- Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
- Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
- While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
- While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
- The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
- The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
With no major news events scheduled today, WTI crude oil delivery is currently trading at $67.53per barrel, up 0.64% from the previous close. The market shows a slight upward trend, with the May 2025 contract trading at $66.93, also up 0.69%. These prices indicate a modest recovery in oil markets, though they remain well below the year’s high of $87.67. The current price levels suggest ongoing concerns about global economic growth and oil demand, balanced against supply constraints from OPEC+ production cuts.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
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