The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 25 November 2024

It was another strong week for financial markets last week, as the various ‘Trump trades’ continued to gain solid ground. US stocks pushed higher, Bitcoin flirted with $100k, and both the dollar and US yields remained well-supported. This week’s macroeconomic calendar picks up slightly from last week’s, with some important US data returning to the agenda, alongside key central bank updates, including the RBNZ’s latest rate decision and the Fed minutes.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It’s a relatively quiet start to the week, with little on the calendar. However, the strong Kiwi focus for the week begins with New Zealand retail sales figures early on. German IFO Business Climate data is also due during the European session, but overall, traders expect smoother trading conditions for the first day of the week.

Tuesday also appears set to be another quieter day, particularly during the first two sessions. However, the first tier-one US data of the week is released as the New York session opens, with the CB Consumer Confidence figures, New Home Sales, and Richmond Manufacturing Index data due.

Wednesday is a busy day for Antipodean traders, with key Australian CPI figures scheduled before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its latest rate decision. There is nothing significant on the agenda during the London session, but the New York session is packed, featuring Prelim GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders, the Chicago PMI, and Core PCE data, all due early in the session. Later in the day, the Fed meeting minutes are set to be released.

There is little on the calendar during the Asian session on Thursday. However, euro traders will be monitoring the German CPI data once the London session opens, while Australian traders will have an update from RBA Governor Michele Bullock, who is scheduled to speak in the Sydney evening. Traders expect a quiet final session of the day as US markets observe the Thanksgiving holiday

The initial focus in the Asian session will be on Japanese markets, with key Tokyo CPI figures due early in the day. During the London session, Swiss GDP figures and Eurozone CPI data will be released, while the New York session will have a Canadian focus with GDP data expected from Ottawa. Once again, liquidity is expected to be reduced on Friday, as many market participants in the US take an extra day off to extend the Thanksgiving holiday into a long weekend.

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