The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 16 September 2024

Global markets are set to enter this key week on a strong note after Wall Street rallied again on Friday, as investors increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points this week.

There is no doubt that the FOMC meeting will be the highlight of the week for many traders. However, there is much more on the event schedule that could move markets, including key rate updates from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, as well as a plethora of important Tier 1 data releases.

Here’s our day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It is very much the calm before the storm on Monday, with little on the calendar for the first trading day of the week. Traders are expecting thinner liquidity in the Asian session, with both China and Japan on bank holidays. Aside from the Empire State Manufacturing Index, due out in the New York session, there is little scheduled to disturb the markets.

The macroeconomic calendar kicks into action on Tuesday and doesn’t leave much room for respite until the Friday New York close. China is on holiday again in another quiet Asian session, and we have just the German ZEW Economic Sentiment data due once London opens. However, Tier 1 data releases start in the New York session with key Canadian CPI numbers due alongside U.S. Retail Sales data.

Once again, a quiet Asian session with little on the calendar, but early focus in Europe will be on the UK, with the release of CPI numbers just 24 hours ahead of the BOE rate decision. U.S. data in the early New York session features the latest Building Permits numbers as well as the weekly Crude Oil inventory data. The main event comes at the end of the session when we finally hear the Fed’s much-anticipated rate decision.

Thursday has the potential to be one of the most volatile sessions of the week, and arguably of the quarter, coming on the back of the key Fed decision. The Antipodes will be in sharp focus in the Asian session, with New Zealand’s quarterly GDP data and key Australian employment numbers scheduled. The Bank of England will update the market on its latest rate decision midway through the London session. When New York opens, we have the weekly unemployment claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales data all due for release.

Friday’s calendar does not let up for traders, with key rate decisions in the Asian session from both the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China. The London session will see more focus on the UK, with the latest Retail Sales data due before New York opens. Initial focus will be on Canada, with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem set to speak shortly before the release of Canadian Retail Sales data. Closer to the close, we will hear updates from ECB President Christine Lagarde and the FOMC’s Patrick Harker.

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