Articles
NZD/USD trims losses near 0.6100 ahead of US CPI data
401688 July 11, 2024 10:14 FXStreet Market News
-
NZD/USD
rebounds
to
0.6090
in
Thursday’s
early
Asian
session. -
The
RBNZ
held
its
policy
rate
at
its
July
meeting
and
delivered
a
less
hawkish
tone. -
Fed’s
Powell
said
central
bank
will
make
interest
rate
decisions
based
on
data,
not
in
consideration
of
political
factors.
The
NZD/USD
pair
trades
on
a
stronger
note
around
0.6090
during
the
early
Asian
session
on
Thursday.
The
pair
recovers
some
lost
ground
on
the
weaker
US
Dollar
(USD)
after
retreating
from
the
weekly
high
of
nearly
0.6155.
The
release
of
the
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data
for
June
will
be
in
the
spotlight
on
Thursday.
On
Wednesday,
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
decided
to
hold
its
Official
Cash
Rate
(OCR)
for
the
eighth
consecutive
meeting
at
5.5%,
the
highest
since
December
2008.
The
board
notes
a
risk
that
domestically
driven
inflation
could
be
more
persistent
in
the
near
term.
The
central
bank
expected
headline
inflation
to
return
to
within
the
1
to
3%
target
range
in
the
second
half
of
this
year.
A
less
hawkish
view
on
inflation
is
likely
to
exert
some
selling
pressure
on
the
Kiwi
for
the
time
being.
On
the
USD’s
front,
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
Chair
Jerome
Powell
said
on
Wednesday
that
the
US
central
bank
would
make
interest
rate
decisions
based
on
the
data,
the
incoming
data,
the
evolving
outlook,
and
the
balance
of
risks,
and
not
in
consideration
of
political
factors.
Furthermore,
Powell
emphasized
that
the
Fed
will
not
be
appropriate
to
cut
the
policy
rate
until
they
gain
greater
confidence
in
inflation
heading
sustainably
towards
the
Fed’s
2%
target.
The
cautious
stance
from
the
Fed
might
lift
the
Greenback
in
the
near
term.
However,
investors
will
take
more
cues
from
the
key
US
inflation
report
later
in
the
day.
The
softer
CPI
inflation
reading
could
trigger
the
expectation
of
the
Fed
rate
cuts
this
year
and
might
weigh
on
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
against
the
NZD.
New
Zealand
Dollar
FAQs
The
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD),
also
known
as
the
Kiwi,
is
a
well-known
traded
currency
among
investors.
Its
value
is
broadly
determined
by
the
health
of
the
New
Zealand
economy
and
the
country’s
central
bank
policy.
Still,
there
are
some
unique
particularities
that
also
can
make
NZD
move.
The
performance
of
the
Chinese
economy
tends
to
move
the
Kiwi
because
China
is
New
Zealand’s
biggest
trading
partner.
Bad
news
for
the
Chinese
economy
likely
means
less
New
Zealand
exports
to
the
country,
hitting
the
economy
and
thus
its
currency.
Another
factor
moving
NZD
is
dairy
prices
as
the
dairy
industry
is
New
Zealand’s
main
export.
High
dairy
prices
boost
export
income,
contributing
positively
to
the
economy
and
thus
to
the
NZD.
The
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
aims
to
achieve
and
maintain
an
inflation
rate
between
1%
and
3%
over
the
medium
term,
with
a
focus
to
keep
it
near
the
2%
mid-point.
To
this
end,
the
bank
sets
an
appropriate
level
of
interest
rates.
When
inflation
is
too
high,
the
RBNZ
will
increase
interest
rates
to
cool
the
economy,
but
the
move
will
also
make
bond
yields
higher,
increasing
investors’
appeal
to
invest
in
the
country
and
thus
boosting
NZD.
On
the
contrary,
lower
interest
rates
tend
to
weaken
NZD.
The
so-called
rate
differential,
or
how
rates
in
New
Zealand
are
or
are
expected
to
be
compared
to
the
ones
set
by
the
US
Federal
Reserve,
can
also
play
a
key
role
in
moving
the
NZD/USD
pair.
Macroeconomic
data
releases
in
New
Zealand
are
key
to
assess
the
state
of
the
economy
and
can
impact
the
New
Zealand
Dollar’s
(NZD)
valuation.
A
strong
economy,
based
on
high
economic
growth,
low
unemployment
and
high
confidence
is
good
for
NZD.
High
economic
growth
attracts
foreign
investment
and
may
encourage
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
to
increase
interest
rates,
if
this
economic
strength
comes
together
with
elevated
inflation.
Conversely,
if
economic
data
is
weak,
NZD
is
likely
to
depreciate.
The
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD)
tends
to
strengthen
during
risk-on
periods,
or
when
investors
perceive
that
broader
market
risks
are
low
and
are
optimistic
about
growth.
This
tends
to
lead
to
a
more
favorable
outlook
for
commodities
and
so-called
‘commodity
currencies’
such
as
the
Kiwi.
Conversely,
NZD
tends
to
weaken
at
times
of
market
turbulence
or
economic
uncertainty
as
investors
tend
to
sell
higher-risk
assets
and
flee
to
the
more-stable
safe
havens.
PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1300 vs. 7.1342 previous
401684 July 11, 2024 09:40 FXStreet Market News
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Australian Dollar appreciates amid expectations of the RBA delaying rate cuts
401680 July 11, 2024 09:39 FXStreet Market News
-
The
Australian
Dollar
gains
ground
due
to
the
hawkish
sentiment
surrounding
the
RBA. -
Australia’s
Consumer
Inflation
Expectations
for
July
posted
a
reading
of
4.3%,
slightly
lower
than
June’s
4.4%
reading. -
The
US
Dollar
declines
due
to
the
lower
Treasury
yields
ahead
of
Consumer
Price
Index
data
for
June.
The
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
holds
gains
on
Thursday
after
the
release
of
soft
Consumer
Inflation
Expectations
for
July
by
the
Melbourne
Institute,
which
presents
consumer
expectations
for
inflation
over
the
next
12
months.
The
AUD/USD
pair
receives
support
from
increasing
expectations
that
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
may
delay
in
the
global
rate-cutting
cycle
or
possibly
raise
interest
rates
again.
Recent
data
showed
a
decline
in
Australian
consumer
confidence
in
July,
contrasted
by
a
surge
in
business
sentiment,
reaching
a
17-month
high
in
June.
The
US
Dollar
(USD)
loses
ground,
potentially
influenced
by
the
lower
US
Treasury
yields.
Traders
are
looking
to
the
upcoming
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data
for
June,
due
on
Thursday,
for
further
insights
into
the
Federal
Reserve’s
(Fed)
monetary
policy
stance.
Market
forecasts
generally
predict
that
the
annualized
US
core
CPI
for
the
year
ending
in
June
will
remain
steady
at
3.4%.
Meanwhile,
headline
CPI
inflation
is
expected
to
increase
to
0.1%
month-over-month
in
June,
compared
to
the
previous
flat
reading
of
0.0%.
Daily
Digest
Market
Movers:
Australian
Dollar
improves
due
to
hawkish
sentiment
surrounding
the
RBA
-
Australia’s
Consumer
Inflation
Expectations
for
July
came
in
at
4.3%,
slightly
lower
than
the
previous
reading
of
4.4%. -
Federal
Reserve
Board
Governor
Lisa
Cook
stated
on
Wednesday,
“My
baseline
forecast…is
that
inflation
will
continue
to
move
toward
target
over
time,
without
much
further
rise
in
unemployment,”
according
to
Reuters. -
On
Wednesday,
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
emphasized
the
need
to
closely
monitor
the
labor
market,
noting
that
it
has
significantly
deteriorated.
Additionally,
Powell
expressed
confidence
in
the
downward
movement
of
inflation. -
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
in
China,
a
close
trade
partner
of
Australia,
rose
at
an
annual
rate
of
0.2%
in
June,
down
from
a
0.3%
rise
in
May.
The
market
had
forecasted
a
0.4%
increase
for
the
period.
Monthly,
Chinese
CPI
inflation
declined
by
0.2%
in
June,
compared
to
a
0.1%
decline
in
May,
which
came
in
below
the
expected
decline
of
0.1%. -
On
Tuesday,
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
answered
questions
before
the
Senate
Banking
Committee
on
the
first
day
of
his
Congressional
testimony.
Powell
stated,
“More
good
data
would
strengthen
our
confidence
in
inflation.”
He
emphasized
that
a
“policy
rate
cut
is
inappropriate
until
the
Fed
gains
greater
confidence
that
inflation
is
headed
sustainably
toward
2%.”
He
also
noted
that
“first-quarter
data
did
not
support
the
greater
confidence
in
the
inflation
path
that
the
Fed
needs
to
cut
rates.” -
On
Tuesday,
Australia’s
Westpac
Consumer
Confidence
dropped
by
1.1%
in
July,
reversing
the
1.7%
increase
seen
in
June.
This
marks
the
fifth
decline
in
2024,
driven
by
ongoing
worries
about
high
inflation,
elevated
interest
rates,
and
a
sluggish
economy.
Technical
Analysis:
Australian
Dollar
maintains
position
around
0.6750
The
Australian
Dollar
trades
around
0.6750
on
Thursday.
The
Analysis
of
the
daily
chart
shows
that
the
AUD/USD
pair
consolidates
within
an
ascending
channel,
indicating
a
bullish
bias.
Additionally,
the
14-day
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
remains
above
the
50
level,
confirming
the
bullish
momentum.
The
AUD/USD
pair
may
test
the
upper
boundary
of
the
ascending
channel
at
approximately
0.6785.
If
it
breaks
through
this
level,
the
pair
could
target
the
psychological
level
of
0.6800.
On
the
downside,
the
AUD/USD
pair
may
find
support
around
the
lower
boundary
of
the
ascending
channel
at
0.6675,
with
additional
support
near
the
50-day
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
at
0.6646.
A
break
below
this
level
could
push
the
pair
toward
the
throwback
support
around
0.6590.
AUD/USD:
Daily
Chart
Australian
Dollar
PRICE
Today
The
table
below
shows
the
percentage
change
of
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
against
listed
major
currencies
today.
Australian
Dollar
was
the
strongest
against
the
Canadian
Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | 0.03% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.06% | -0.00% | -0.03% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.02% | 0.05% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.01% | |
| NZD | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.03% |
The
heat
map
shows
percentage
changes
of
major
currencies
against
each
other.
The
base
currency
is
picked
from
the
left
column,
while
the
quote
currency
is
picked
from
the
top
row.
For
example,
if
you
pick
the
Australian
Dollar
from
the
left
column
and
move
along
the
horizontal
line
to
the
US
Dollar,
the
percentage
change
displayed
in
the
box
will
represent
AUD
(base)/USD
(quote).
RBA
FAQs
The
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
sets
interest
rates
and
manages
monetary
policy
for
Australia.
Decisions
are
made
by
a
board
of
governors
at
11
meetings
a
year
and
ad
hoc
emergency
meetings
as
required.
The
RBA’s
primary
mandate
is
to
maintain
price
stability,
which
means
an
inflation
rate
of
2-3%,
but
also
“..to
contribute
to
the
stability
of
the
currency,
full
employment,
and
the
economic
prosperity
and
welfare
of
the
Australian
people.”
Its
main
tool
for
achieving
this
is
by
raising
or
lowering
interest
rates.
Relatively
high
interest
rates
will
strengthen
the
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
and
vice
versa.
Other
RBA
tools
include
quantitative
easing
and
tightening.
While
inflation
had
always
traditionally
been
thought
of
as
a
negative
factor
for
currencies
since
it
lowers
the
value
of
money
in
general,
the
opposite
has
actually
been
the
case
in
modern
times
with
the
relaxation
of
cross-border
capital
controls.
Moderately
higher
inflation
now
tends
to
lead
central
banks
to
put
up
their
interest
rates,
which
in
turn
has
the
effect
of
attracting
more
capital
inflows
from
global
investors
seeking
a
lucrative
place
to
keep
their
money.
This
increases
demand
for
the
local
currency,
which
in
the
case
of
Australia
is
the
Aussie
Dollar.
Macroeconomic
data
gauges
the
health
of
an
economy
and
can
have
an
impact
on
the
value
of
its
currency.
Investors
prefer
to
invest
their
capital
in
economies
that
are
safe
and
growing
rather
than
precarious
and
shrinking.
Greater
capital
inflows
increase
the
aggregate
demand
and
value
of
the
domestic
currency.
Classic
indicators,
such
as
GDP,
Manufacturing
and
Services
PMIs,
employment,
and
consumer
sentiment
surveys
can
influence
AUD.
A
strong
economy
may
encourage
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
to
put
up
interest
rates,
also
supporting
AUD.
Quantitative
Easing
(QE)
is
a
tool
used
in
extreme
situations
when
lowering
interest
rates
is
not
enough
to
restore
the
flow
of
credit
in
the
economy.
QE
is
the
process
by
which
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
prints
Australian
Dollars
(AUD)
for
the
purpose
of
buying
assets
–
usually
government
or
corporate
bonds
–
from
financial
institutions,
thereby
providing
them
with
much-needed
liquidity.
QE
usually
results
in
a
weaker
AUD.
Quantitative
tightening
(QT)
is
the
reverse
of
QE.
It
is
undertaken
after
QE
when
an
economic
recovery
is
underway
and
inflation
starts
rising.
Whilst
in
QE
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
purchases
government
and
corporate
bonds
from
financial
institutions
to
provide
them
with
liquidity,
in
QT
the
RBA
stops
buying
more
assets,
and
stops
reinvesting
the
principal
maturing
on
the
bonds
it
already
holds.
It
would
be
positive
(or
bullish)
for
the
Australian
Dollar.
General Market Analysis 11/07/2024
401677 July 11, 2024 09:17 ICMarkets Market News
US Stocks Power Higher Ahead of Data – Nasdaq up 1.2%
US Stock indices powered higher in trading yesterday to set all-time record closes as tech companies and the ‘Magnificent 7’ rose again. The Nasdaq gained 1.18% on the day closely followed by the S&P which added 1.02% and the Dow which finished up 1.09% to the good. Other markets were more subdued ahead of tonight’s key inflation numbers in the states, US treasury yields edged lower, the 2-year losing just 0.7 basis points to trade to 4.630% and the 10-year dropping 1.6 basis points to 4.284%. Currencies remained in familiar ranges, although the Kiwi took a hit after a more dovish then expected RBNZ meeting and UsdJpy remains close to record highs. Oil prices recovered from recent dips, Brent up 0.5% to $85.08 and WTI rose 0.85% to $ 82.10 while Gold ground up 0.2% on the day to close at $2,371 an ounce.
Yen Traders Hold their Breath Ahead of US Inflation Data
The furore surrounding potential intervention by the Bank of Japan has died down over the last week or so of trading a threatened action by Japanese authorities has failed to take place. However, many traders are keeping a very close eye on moves in the Yen over the next few sessions after it bottomed out just above recent lows in trading overnight. UsdJpy hit a high of 161.82 last night just below the July 2nd 161.99 summit and traders are concerned that a run above this level in the next few sessions could prompt the Ministry of Finance to act. The lively catalyst for a move today would be a higher-than-expected print for the US CPI data but any other round of dollar buying could also see those levels challenged again. Most traders feel that we are likely to see quiet ranges ahead of the New York session but are preparing for a sharp increase in volatility once the CPI numbers drop.
US CPI Data in Focus Today
Asian markets are set to open on the front foot today after a stellar day on Wall Street although some traders are expecting a more subdued day ahead as they look to the crucial release of the latest CPI numbers in the US later in the trading sessions. There is very little on the calendar in the APAC day to move the dial, although Yen traders do remain on intervention watch at current levels. The UK economy will come into focus early in the London session with the release of the GDP numbers, expectation is for a 0.2% month-on-month increase. But the real focus for the day is on the key CPI numbers due out early in the New York session, the headline number is expected to show a 0.1% month-on-month increase with the Core data coming in +0.2%. The year-on-year data is expected to show a 0.2% decrease coming in at 3.1% and anything significantly off expectations will see some sharp moves in the market. Unemployment claims are due out at the same time but expect the inflation numbers to dominate sentiment.
The post General Market Analysis 11/07/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 4.3% in July from previous 4.4%
401676 July 11, 2024 09:15 FXStreet Market News
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South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision remains unchanged at 3.5%
401675 July 11, 2024 09:14 FXStreet Market News
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Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) registered at 10.8% above expectations (7.2%) in May
401673 July 11, 2024 08:39 FXStreet Market News
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Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) below forecasts (0.8%) in May: Actual (-3.2%)
401672 July 11, 2024 08:39 FXStreet Market News
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1654 | +0.724% | EURUSD AUDUSD
401265 July 11, 2024 08:18 SwingFish Trading Room Journal AUDUSD • EURUSD
Today’s risk: 1.45% [Drawdown: 0.836%] (more…)
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