Articles
Innovation or desperation?
401921 July 12, 2024 12:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The
last
16
hours
have
been
a
bit
off
colour
for
Japan
in
their
attempts
to
stem
the
depreciation
in
the
yen.
For
one,
they
reportedly
intervened
in
the
market
to
try
and
capitalise
on
a
softer
US
CPI
report
during
the
start
of
US
trading.
Then,
they
even
allowed
for
said
move
to
be
leaked
quite
quickly
after.
I
mean,
sure,
we
all
had
our
suspicions.
But
it’s
quite
unlike
Tokyo
to
so
easily
let
the
news
come
out
just
like
that.
USD/JPY
is
down
nearly
250
pips
since
before
the
US
CPI
report
but
somehow,
this
still
looks
like
a
failure
on
the
part
of
Japanese
officials.
If
you
want
to
frame
it
in
another
way,
the
pair
is
up
some
170
pips
from
the
low
of
157.40
after
the
reported
yen-tervention.
So,
why
did
Tokyo
decide
to
make
a
move
during
one
of,
if
not
the
most
liquid
period
in
trading
yesterday?
The
obvious
being
that
the
US
inflation
numbers
were
a
miss
on
estimates.
And
the
details
also
revealed
softer
price
pressures
in
general.
All
of
that
says
the
narrative
that
the
disinflation
process
is
still
playing
out,
although
I
would
argue
that
it
is
still
continuing
at
a
rather
gradual
pace.
Is
all
of
that
enough
to
compel
the
Fed
to
cut
rates
in
September
or
at
least
three
times
this
year?
Well,
that’s
a
topic
for
another
debate.
But
on
the
latter,
I
still
have
my
reservations.
In
any
case,
Japanese
officials
were
certainly
hoping
to
get
some
kind
of
bang
for
their
buck
in
driving
USD/JPY
lower
alongside
some
added
dollar
selling.
Their
previous
intervention
effort
came
during
illiquid
market
hours
and
that
has
been
faded
during
the
course
of
May
and
June
trading.
So,
this
is
definitely
something
new.
But
is
this
really
a
sign
of
innovation
on
their
part?
Or
is
it
a
sign
of
desperation,
in
the
sense
that
they
are
running
out
of
ways
to
stop
the
yen
from
falling
much
further?
In
my
view,
it
matters
little
whether
it
is
one
or
the
other.
Ultimately,
it
comes
down
to
the
fundamental
narrative
in
Japan.
I
still
don’t
see
the
BOJ
being
convincing
enough
to
tighten
monetary
policy
aggressively.
And
I
reckon
that’s
a
view
that
broader
markets
are
also
sharing
for
the
most
part
even
until
now.
So,
yes.
There
is
no
doubt
that
Tokyo
is
still
trying
to
plant
its
feet
on
the
ground
in
stopping
further
depreciation
in
the
yen.
But
it
doesn’t
help
their
case
when
that
is
really
the
only
pushback
factor
with
little
else
to
drive
traders
into
looking
at
the
other
direction.
Even
when
it
comes
to
the
technicals,
USD/JPY
is
still
retaining
its
uptrend
for
the
year
after
the
swings
since
yesterday:
USD/JPY
daily
chart
Japan Capacity Utilization increased to 4.1% in May from previous 0.3%
401920 July 12, 2024 12:39 FXStreet Market News
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Japan Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous 0.3% to 1.1% in May
401919 July 12, 2024 12:39 FXStreet Market News
Information
on
these
pages
contains
forward-looking
statements
that
involve
risks
and
uncertainties.
Markets
and
instruments
profiled
on
this
page
are
for
informational
purposes
only
and
should
not
in
any
way
come
across
as
a
recommendation
to
buy
or
sell
in
these
assets.
You
should
do
your
own
thorough
research
before
making
any
investment
decisions.
FXStreet
does
not
in
any
way
guarantee
that
this
information
is
free
from
mistakes,
errors,
or
material
misstatements.
It
also
does
not
guarantee
that
this
information
is
of
a
timely
nature.
Investing
in
Open
Markets
involves
a
great
deal
of
risk,
including
the
loss
of
all
or
a
portion
of
your
investment,
as
well
as
emotional
distress.
All
risks,
losses
and
costs
associated
with
investing,
including
total
loss
of
principal,
are
your
responsibility.
The
views
and
opinions
expressed
in
this
article
are
those
of
the
authors
and
do
not
necessarily
reflect
the
official
policy
or
position
of
FXStreet
nor
its
advertisers.
The
author
will
not
be
held
responsible
for
information
that
is
found
at
the
end
of
links
posted
on
this
page.
If
not
otherwise
explicitly
mentioned
in
the
body
of
the
article,
at
the
time
of
writing,
the
author
has
no
position
in
any
stock
mentioned
in
this
article
and
no
business
relationship
with
any
company
mentioned.
The
author
has
not
received
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article,
other
than
from
FXStreet.
FXStreet
and
the
author
do
not
provide
personalized
recommendations.
The
author
makes
no
representations
as
to
the
accuracy,
completeness,
or
suitability
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information.
FXStreet
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author
will
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and
its
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The
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FXStreet
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investment
advice.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Bitcoin volatility surges amid impact of US CPI data
401914 July 12, 2024 12:14 FXStreet Market News
-
Bitcoin
price
finds
resistance
around
the
weekly
level
of
$58,375;
a
breakout
of
this
level
could
signal
a
bullish
move. -
Ethereum
finds
support
around
the
key
level
at
$2,817,
with
potential
recovery
on
the
cards. -
Ripple
price
finds
support
around
the
weekly
support
level
of
$0.413,
impending
rally
eyed.
Bitcoin
(BTC)
initially
dipped
before
rallying
after
the
release
of
US
CPI
data
on
Wednesday.
Ethereum
(ETH)
and
Ripple
(XRP)
are
possibly
set
to
mirror
BTC’s
pattern,
showcasing
the
synchronized
dance
of
cryptocurrency
markets.
Bitcoin
price
shows
potential
Bitcoin
has
encountered
resistance
near
the
$58,375
weekly
resistance
throughout
this
week.
As
of
Friday,
BTC
is
trading
at
$57,250,
showing
a
slight
decline
of
0.2%.
Furthermore,
BTC
is
currently
below
a
descending
trendline
formed
by
connecting
multiple
swing
high
levels
from
early
June
to
mid-July.
If
BTC
closes
above
the
weekly
resistance
at
$58,375
and
a
breakthrough
above
the
descending
trendline
could
potentially
lead
to
a
9%
increase,
targeting
a
revisit
of
the
daily
resistance
at
$63,956.
Moreover,
the
daily
chart
shows
a
lower
low
formation
on
July
5,
while
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
indicated
a
higher
high
during
the
same
period.
This
bullish
divergence
often
signals
a
trend
reversal
or
a
short-term
rally.
BTC/USDT
daily
chart
Conversely,
if
BTC
closes
below
the
daily
support
level
at
$52,266
and
forms
another
lower
low
in
the
daily
timeframe,
it
could
indicate
continued
bearish
sentiment.
Such
a
scenario
might
trigger
a
4%
decline
in
Bitcoin’s
price,
potentially
revisiting
the
low
of
$50,521
observed
on
February
23.
Ethereum
price
displays
resilience
with
promising
upside
Ethereum’s
price
found
support
on
Monday
at
$2,817,
which
was
its
low
on
May
1.
It
rebounded
by
2.7%
in
the
next
two
days.
As
of
Friday,
it
is
trading
slightly
up
by
0.32%
at
$3,059.
If
Ethereum’s
price
closes
above
the
$3,240
level,
ETH
could
potentially
increase
8.8%,
targeting
a
retest
of
its
daily
high
from
July
1
at
$3,524.
The
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
the
Awesome
Oscillator
(AO)
on
the
daily
chart
are
currently
below
their
respective
neutral
levels
of
50
and
zero.
For
bullish
momentum
to
be
sustained,
both
indicators
need
to
rise
above
these
critical
levels,
which
could
support
the
ongoing
recovery
rally.
Furthermore,
surpassing
the
$3,524
level
could
open
the
way
for
an
additional
5.5%
rise,
aiming
to
retest
the
next
daily
high,
recorded
at
$3,717
on
June
9.
ETH/USDT
daily
chart
On
the
other
hand,
if
Ethereum’s
daily
candlestick
closes
below
$2,817,
forming
a
lower
low
in
the
daily
timeframe,
it
may
signal
persistent
bearish
sentiment.
This
scenario
could
potentially
trigger
a
7%
decline
in
Ethereum’s
price,
targeting
a
revisit
of
its
daily
support
at
$2,621.
Ripple
price
eyes
a
rally
Ripple’s
price
found
support
near
the
weekly
mark
of
$0.413
early
this
week,
rebounding
by
4%
over
the
subsequent
two
days.
As
of
Friday,
it
trades
up
by
0.6%
to
trade
at
$0.452.
A
daily
close
above
the
$0.450
threshold
for
XRP
could
potentially
fuel
an
11%
rally,
targeting
a
revisit
of
its
daily
resistance
level
at
$0.499.
On
the
daily
chart,
both
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
the
Awesome
Oscillator
(AO)
are
currently
positioned
below
their
critical
thresholds
of
50
and
zero,
respectively.
To
maintain
bullish
momentum,
these
indicators
need
to
rise
above
these
levels,
potentially
bolstering
the
ongoing
recovery.
Furthermore,
surpassing
the
$0.499
level
could
pave
the
way
for
an
additional
6.4%
increase,
aiming
to
retest
the
next
daily
high
at
$0.532
recorded
on
June
5.
XRP/USDT
daily
chart
However,
if
Ripple’s
daily
candlestick
closes
below
$0.413,
forming
a
lower
low
in
the
daily
timeframe,
it
indicates
sustained
bearish
sentiment.
Such
a
scenario
could
potentially
lead
to
a
16%
decline
in
Ripple’s
price,
targeting
a
revisit
of
its
low
from
March
12
at
$0.347.
Full Article
AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Struggles to break through 38.2% Fibo. after Chinese trade data
401912 July 12, 2024 12:14 FXStreet Market News
-
AUD/JPY
stages
a
goodish
recovery
from
a
two-week
low
touched
earlier
this
Friday. -
The
emergence
of
fresh
selling
around
the
JPY
is
seen
as
a
key
factor
lending
support. -
The
technical
setup
warrants
caution
before
positioning
for
any
further
intraday
gains.
The
AUD/JPY
cross
attracts
some
dip-buyers
near
the
106.75
region,
or
a
two-week
trough
touched
during
the
Asian
session
on
Friday
and
stalls
the
previous
day’s
retracement
slide
from
its
highest
level
since
May
1991.
The
intraday
move-up
is
sponsored
by
a
combination
of
factors
and
lifts
spot
prices
to
the
107.70
region,
or
a
fresh
daily
peak
in
the
last
hour.
The
Japanese
Yen
(JPY)
meets
with
a
fresh
supply
in
the
absence
of
any
concrete
evidence
that
Japanese
authorities
stepped
into
the
FX
market
to
support
the
domestic
currency.
Apart
from
this,
the
underlying
strong
bullish
sentiment
across
the
global
equity
markets
undermines
the
safe-haven
JPY
and
benefits
the
risk-sensitive
Aussie,
which
further
draws
support
from
bets
that
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
could
raise
rates
again.
Meanwhile,
Chinese
data
released
this
Friday
showed
that
the
trade
surplus,
in
Chinese
Yuan
terms,
widened
to
CNY703.73
billion
from
the
previous
figure
of
CNY586.40
billion.
Additional
details
of
the
report
revealed
that
exports
rose
10.7%
YoY
in
June
vs.
11.2%
seen
in
May,
while
the
country’s
imports
dropped
0.6%
YoY
during
the
reported
month
vs.
the
5.2%
previous.
This,
however,
does
little
to
provide
any
impetus
to
the
AUD/JPY
cross.
From
a
technical
perspective,
spot
prices,
so
far,
have
been
struggling
to
build
on
the
strength
beyond
the
38.2%
Fibonacci
retracement
level
of
the
downfall
from
the
overnight
swing
high.
Moreover,
oscillators
on
hourly
charts
are
still
holding
in
the
negative
territory
and
warrant
some
caution
for
bullish
traders.
A
sustained
strength
beyond
the
said
barrier,
however,
should
pave
the
way
for
a
further
intraday
appreciating
move.
The
AUD/JPY
cross
might
then
aim
to
reclaim
the
108.00
mark,
which
now
coincides
with
the
50%
Fibo.
level.
Some
follow-through
buying
will
suggest
that
the
corrective
pullback
has
run
its
course
and
set
the
stage
for
the
resumption
of
the
uptrend
witnessed
over
the
past
month
or
so.
On
the
flip
side,
the
107.35
area,
or
the
23.6%
Fibo.
level
now
seems
to
protect
the
immediate
downside
ahead
of
the
107.00
mark
and
the
Asian
session
low,
around
the
106.75
region.
A
convincing
break
below
will
be
seen
as
a
fresh
trigger
for
bearish
traders,
making
the
AUD/JPY
cross
vulnerable
to
accelerate
the
fall
further
towards
the
106.50-106.40
intermediate
support
en
route
to
the
106.00
mark
and
the
105.65
region.
AUD/JPY
1-hour
chart
Economic
Indicator
Trade
Balance
CNY
The
Trade
Balance
released
by
the
General
Administration
of
Customs
of
the
People’s
Republic
of
China
is
a
balance
between
exports
and
imports
of
total
goods
and
services.
A
positive
value
shows
trade
surplus,
while
a
negative
value
shows
trade
deficit.
It
is
an
event
that
generates
some
volatility
for
the
CNY.
As
the
Chinese
economy
has
influence
on
the
global
economy,
this
economic
indicator
would
have
an
impact
on
the
Forex
market.
In
general,
a
high
reading
is
seen
as
positive
(or
bullish)
CNY,
while
a
low
reading
is
seen
as
negative
(or
bearish)
for
the
CNY.
Friday 12th July 2024: Technical Outlook and Review
401910 July 12, 2024 11:40 ICMarkets Market News
DXY (US Dollar Index):
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 104.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 104.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, specifically at the 100% Fibonacci Projection, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 105.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
EUR/USD:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.0856
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st support: 1.0794
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st resistance: 1.0912
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
EUR/JPY:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 173.49
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 170.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 175.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
EUR/GBP:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 0.8435
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8403
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.8458
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
GBP/USD:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.2854
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, indicating a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 1.2778
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.2949
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
GBP/JPY:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 206.05
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 201.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 207.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
USD/CHF:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 0.8972
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8891
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 100% Fibonacci Projection, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.8996
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
USD/JPY:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 160.31
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 157.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 161.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
USD/CAD:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.
Pivot:1.3645
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, suggesting a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bearish momentum.
1st support: 1.3602
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing support that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, suggesting a potential area that could halt further downward movement.
1st resistance: 1.3668
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.
AUD/USD:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6752
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the bullish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bullish momentum.
1st support: 0.6731
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 0.6789
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
NZD/USD
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral
Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise higher towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6070
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st support: 0.6054
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a significant area that could halt further downward momentum.
1st resistance: 0.6133
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 78.6 Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
US30 (DJIA):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish
Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 39,622.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.
1st Support: 39,208.03
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 40,062.11
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
DE40 (DAX):
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to drop towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 18,568.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st Support: 18,424.70
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 18,651.60
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
US500 (S&P 500):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,564.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.
1st support: 5,520.06
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 5,639.97
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, suggesting a critical area where selling pressures may intensify and potentially halt further upward movement.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral
Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 55,143.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st support: 53,301.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.
1st resistance: 59,267.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement. The presence of the bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bearish momentum.
ETH/USD (Ethereum):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral
Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,065.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st Support: 2,878.94
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.
1st Resistance: 3,258.56
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a historical barrier where selling pressures could intensify.
WTI/USD (Oil):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish break above this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 83.21
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a potential breakout level where the bullish momentum could drive price higher.
1st Support: 80.95
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 84.78
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.
XAU/USD (GOLD):
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 2419.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement and 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating Fibonacci confluence and a significant area where previous declines have found resistance.
1st support: 2392.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 2450.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
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The post Friday 12th July 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 July 2024
401909 July 12, 2024 11:40 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 July 2024
What happened in the U.S. session?
After easing in May, U.S. inflation showed inflationary pressures dissipate further in June. Headline and core CPI readings surprised market estimates to the downside, coming in lower than their respective forecasts on a monthly and annualised basis. Headline CPI fell significantly lower from 3.3% to 3.0% YoY while the core edged down from 3.4% to 3.3% YoY. In fact, headline CPI decreased 0.1% MoM to register the first decline since May 2020.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims had risen in recent weeks to signal potential ‘cracks’ in the labour market with the 4-week average moving up to 238K. However, the latest print came in at 222K, well below the forecast of 236K as well as the 4-week average. This was the lowest number of claims in six weeks but it was overshadowed by the notable easing of consumer inflation, which marked the second consecutive month of modest price increases.
The dollar index (DXY) was hovering around 104.90 prior to the release of the above macroeconomic data but it plunged towards 104, hitting a low of 104.07 before retracing slightly higher by the end of this session.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
As Asian markets digest the latest inflation data out of the U.S., the DXY was lingering around 104.50 while prices for spot gold remained elevated – this precious metal was trading around $2,410/oz. Overhead pressures remain for the dollar but traders should keep an eye out for retracements to the upside.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
PPI (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The PPI – which measures wholesale inflation – marginally eased in May as the headline reading slowed to 2.1%, down from 2.2% YoY in April. Should June’s PPI result follow in the same vein as yesterday’s CPI, it could potentially spark another massive sell-off in the greenback later today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the seventh meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated and in recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
- In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- Next meeting runs from 30 to 31 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
PPI (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
The PPI – which measures wholesale inflation – marginally eased in May as the headline reading slowed to 2.1%, down from 2.2% YoY in April. Should June’s PPI result follow in the same vein as yesterday’s CPI, it could potentially spark another massive sell-off in the greenback and potentially boost gold prices once again.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie surged from 0.6755 to an overnight high of 0.6798 before reversing to nearly erase all the initial gains. This currency pair was trading around 0.6760 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6750
Resistance: 0.6825
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the ninth pause out of the last ten board meetings.
- Over the year to April, the monthly CPI indicator rose by 3.6% in headline terms, and by 4.1% excluding volatile items and holiday travel, which was similar to its pace in December 2023.
- The central forecasts published in May were for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in the second half of 2025 and to the midpoint in 2026 while there have been indications that momentum in economic activity is weak, including slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and slower-than-expected wages growth.
- Inflation is easing but has been doing so more slowly than previously expected and it remains high and the Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
- The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
- Next meeting is on 6 August 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
With demand for the greenback plunging overnight, the Kiwi spiked as high as 0.6134 before giving up all the initial gains. This currency pair was trading around 0.6075 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6070
Resistance: 0.6130
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row and agreed that restrictive monetary policy is reducing domestic demand and consumer price inflation.
- The Committee is confident that inflation will return to within its 1-3% target range over the second half of 2024.
- The decline in inflation reflects receding domestic pricing pressures, as well as lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand while recent monthly Selected Price Indexes suggest weakening in some of the more volatile inflation components, while survey measures of cost pressures and pricing intentions have continued to decline.
- Non-performing bank loans and corporate insolvencies have increased from low levels in line with declining economic activity while bank credit growth also remains very subdued, in line with weakness in the domestic economy and low business and consumer confidence.
- Next meeting is on 14 August 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
Rumours of an intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) surfaced overnight as the yen strengthened significantly during the U.S. session, gaining over 2%. This surge in the value of the yen caused USD/JPY to dive from 161.50, hitting a low of 157.42, before reversing to climb higher towards 159.50 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 157.50
Resistance: 160.30
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
- The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its Japanese government bonds (JGB) purchases in accordance with the decisions made at the March 2024 MPM.
- The Bank decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, that it would reduce its purchase amount of JGBs thereafter to ensure that long-term interest rates would be formed more freely in financial markets.
- Underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
- In the second half of the projection period of the April 2024 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
- The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food), has been in the range of 2.0-2.5% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned. Inflation expectations have risen moderately.
- Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part while is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- Next meeting is on 31 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
The Euro hit an overnight high of 1.0900 before reversing to nearly erase all the initial gains. This currency pair was trading around 1.0870 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.0855
Resistance: 1.0900
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points after nine months of holding rates steady.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively, with effect from 12 June 2024.
- Since September 2023, inflation has fallen by more than 2.5% and the inflation outlook has improved markedly while underlying inflation has also eased, reinforcing the signs that price pressures have weakened, and inflation expectations have declined at all horizons.
- At the same time, despite the progress over recent quarters, domestic price pressures remain strong as wage growth is elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year – the latest Eurosystem staff projections for both headline and core inflation have been revised up for 2024 and 2025 compared with the March projections.
- Projections now show headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 while economic growth is expected to pick up to 0.9% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.
- The Council also confirmed that it will reduce the Eurosystem’s holdings of securities under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by €7.5 billion per month on average over the second half of the year.
- The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- Next meeting is on 18 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
As demand for the greenback plunged overnight, USD/CHF tumbled under 0.8920 before retracing higher by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair was edging higher towards 0.8970 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8900
Resistance: 0.9000
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
- The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
- The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
- Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
- Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Cable hit an overnight high of 1.2949 before pulling back towards the 1.2900-threshold. This currency pair hovered around 1.2910 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2895
Resistance: 1.2950
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7-to-2 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
- Two members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of one from the previous meeting.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May from 3.2% in March, close to the May Monetary Policy Report projection. CPI inflation is expected to rise slightly in the second half of this year, as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison.
- Reflecting a margin of slack in the economy, CPI inflation had been projected to be 1.9% in two years’ time and 1.6% in three years.
- UK GDP appears to have grown more strongly than expected during the first half of this year. Business surveys, however, remain consistent with a slower pace of underlying growth, of around 0.25% per quarter.
- UK real GDP had increased by 0.6% in 2024 Q1, 0.2% stronger than had been expected in the May Monetary Policy Report and Bank staff now expect GDP growth of 0.5% in 2024 Q2 as a whole, stronger than the 0.2% rate that had been incorporated in the May Report.
- The MPC remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted by economic data to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably. It will therefore continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation.
- Next meeting is on 1 August 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
With demand for the greenback plunging overnight, USD/CAD reversed 1.3635 to briefly dip under 1.3600 before reversing quite sharply. This currency pair was trading around 1.3630 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3590
Resistance: 1.3645
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
- Canada’s economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the second half of last year. At 1.7%, first-quarter GDP growth was slower than forecast in the MPR but consumption growth was solid at about 3%, and business investment and housing activity also increased.
- Inflation remains above the 2% target and shelter price inflation is high but total CPI inflation has declined consistently over the course of this year, and indicators of underlying inflation increasingly point to a sustained easing.
- CPI inflation has eased from 3.4% in December to 2.7% in April while the preferred measures of core inflation have come down from about 3.5% last December to about 2.75% in April and the 3-month rate of core inflation slowed from about 3.5% in December to under 2% in March and April.
- In the labour market, businesses are continuing to hire workers as employment has been growing, but at a slower pace than the working-age population while elevated wage pressures look to be moderating gradually.
- The Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
- Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
- Next meeting is on 24 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Crude prices rose strongly for the second consecutive day with WTI oil gaining 1.1% overnight. This benchmark climbed above the $83-mark during the U.S. session but it stalled around $83.40 per barrel at the beginning of the Asia session. Despite the strong rally over the past two days, prices look set to notch its first loss in six weeks.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
Gold price sticks to intraday losses amid modest USD uptick, holds above $2,400 mark
401908 July 12, 2024 11:39 FXStreet Market News
-
Gold
price
drifts
lower
and
reverses
a
part
of
Thursday’s
softer
US
CPI-inspired
positive
move. -
An
uptick
in
the
US
bond
yields
revives
the
USD
demand
and
exerts
pressure
on
the
XAU/USD. -
Rising
September
Fed
rate
cut
bets
should
act
as
a
tailwind
for
the
metal
and
help
limit
losses.
Gold
price
(XAU/USD)
rallied
to
the
$2,424-2,425
area
on
Thursday,
or
its
highest
level
since
May
22
in
reaction
to
another
tame
US
inflation
report,
which
boosted
expectations
that
the
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
will
cut
interest
rates
in
September.
That
said,
a
goodish
pickup
in
the
US
Treasury
bond
yields
assists
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
in
moving
away
from
a
nearly
three-month
low
set
on
Thursday
and
prompts
some
selling
around
the
non-yielding
yellow
metal
during
the
Asian
session
on
Friday.
Apart
from
this,
the
underlying
bullish
sentiment
surrounding
the
equity
markets
is
seen
as
another
factor
driving
flows
away
from
the
safe-haven
precious
metal.
Gold
price,
for
now,
seems
to
have
snapped
a
three-day
winning
streak,
though
any
meaningful
corrective
downfall
still
seems
elusive
in
the
wake
of
firming
expectations
that
the
Fed
will
start
its
rate-cutting
cycle
sooner
rather
than
later.
Adding
to
this,
geopolitical
risks,
political
uncertainty
in
the
US
and
Europe,
along
with
concerns
about
a
global
economic
slowdown,
should
continue
to
act
as
a
tailwind
for
the
XAU/USD,
warranting
some
caution
for
bears.
Traders
now
look
forward
to
the
release
of
the
US
Producer
Price
Index
(PPI)
and
the
University
of
Michigan
Consumer
Sentiment
survey
for
a
fresh
impetus
later
during
the
North
American
session.
Daily
Digest
Market
Movers:
Gold
price
is
weighed
down
by
reviving
USD
demand,
downside
seems
limited
-
Gold
price
surged
past
the
$2,400
mark
on
Thursday
following
the
release
of
the
softer-than-expected
US
consumer
inflation
figures,
which
lifted
bets
for
a
September
interest
rate
cut
by
the
Federal
Reserve. -
The
US
Bureau
of
Labor
Statistics
(BLS)
reported
that
the
headline
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
dipped
in
June
for
the
first
time
in
more
than
four
years
and
the
yearly
rate
decelerated
to
3%
from
3.3%
in
May. -
Meanwhile,
the
core
CPI,
which
excludes
volatile
food
and
energy
prices,
was
up
0.1%
during
the
reported
month
and
rose
3.3%
YoY,
also
missing
consensus
estimates
and
the
3.4%
increase
registered
in
May. -
Investors
were
quick
to
react
and
are
now
pricing
in
over
a
90%
chance
that
the
Fed
will
lower
borrowing
costs
at
the
September
monetary
policy
meeting,
as
indicated
by
the
CME
Group’s
FedWatch
Tool. -
Furthermore,
the
December
2024
fed
funds
rate
futures
contract
implies
that
the
US
central
bank
will
cut
policy
rates
by
49
basis
points
(bps)
toward
the
end
of
the
year,
up
from
39
bps
a
day
ago. -
San
Francisco
Fed
President
Mary
Daly
acknowledged
improving
inflation
figures
and
said
that
the
economy
looks
to
be
on
a
path
where
one
or
two
rate
cuts
this
year
would
be
more
or
less
appropriate. -
Separately,
St.
Louis
Fed
President
Alberto
Musalem
noted
that
recession
risks
remain
low,
and
the
disinflation
process
is
ongoing,
though
policymakers
would
like
to
see
more
progress. -
Meanwhile,
the
yield
on
the
benchmark
10-year
US
government
bond
tumbled
to
its
lowest
level
since
March,
dragging
the
US
Dollar
to
a
three-month
trough
and
providing
a
strong
boost
to
the
yellow
metal. -
This
overshadowed
the
better-than-expected
release
of
the
US
Initial
Jobless
Claims,
which
fell
to
222K
for
the
week
ending
July
6
as
compared
to
expectations
for
a
reading
of
236K
and
the
239K
previous. -
The
XAU/USD,
however,
struggles
to
capitalize
on
the
overnight
strong
move
up
amid
a
modest
USD
uptick
during
the
Asian
session
on
Friday,
though
the
fundamental
backdrop
favors
bullish
traders.
Technical
Analysis:
Gold
price
could
find
decent
support
near
and
attract
dip-buyers
near
the
$2,390-2,388
area
From
a
technical
perspective,
the
overnight
sustained
breakout
through
the
$2,400
mark
was
seen
as
a
fresh
trigger
for
bullish
traders.
Moreover,
oscillators
on
the
daily
chart
have
been
gaining
positive
traction
and
are
still
away
from
being
in
the
overbought
territory.
This
further
validates
the
near-term
positive
outlook
for
the
Gold
price,
suggesting
that
any
meaningful
slide
might
be
seen
as
a
buying
opportunity
and
remain
limited.
Some
follow-through
selling
below
the
$2.388-2.387
horizontal
resistance
breakpoint,
now
turned
support,
could
drag
the
XAU/USD
towards
the
$2,358
region
with
some
intermediate
support
near
the
$2,372-2,371
area.
On
the
flip
side,
the
overnight
swing
high,
around
the
$2,425
region
now
seems
to
act
as
an
immediate
hurdle,
above
which
the
Gold
price
is
more
likely
to
aim
back
towards
challenging
the
all-time
peak,
around
the
$2,450
region
touched
in
May.
Interest
rates
FAQs
China Trade Balance USD registered at $99.05B above expectations ($85B) in June
401907 July 12, 2024 11:39 FXStreet Market News
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