AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Struggles to break through 38.2% Fibo. after Chinese trade data

• 
  AUD/JPY
  stages
  a
  goodish
  recovery
  from
  a
  two-week
  low
  touched
  earlier
  this
  Friday.
• 
  The
  emergence
  of
  fresh
  selling
  around
  the
  JPY
  is
  seen
  as
  a
  key
  factor
  lending
  support.
• 
  The
  technical
  setup
  warrants
  caution
  before
  positioning
  for
  any
  further
  intraday
  gains.

The
AUD/JPY
cross
attracts
some
dip-buyers
near
the
106.75
region,
or
a
two-week
trough
touched
during
the
Asian
session
on
Friday
and
stalls
the
previous
day’s
retracement
slide
from
its
highest
level
since
May
1991.
The
intraday
move-up
is
sponsored
by
a
combination
of
factors
and
lifts
spot
prices
to
the
107.70
region,
or
a
fresh
daily
peak
in
the
last
hour.

The
Japanese
Yen
(JPY)
meets
with
a
fresh
supply
in
the
absence
of
any
concrete
evidence
that
Japanese
authorities
stepped
into
the
FX
market
to
support
the
domestic
currency.
Apart
from
this,
the
underlying
strong
bullish
sentiment
across
the
global
equity
markets
undermines
the
safe-haven
JPY
and
benefits
the
risk-sensitive
Aussie,
which
further
draws
support
from
bets
that
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
could
raise
rates
again.

Meanwhile,
Chinese
data
released
this
Friday
showed
that
the
trade
surplus,
in
Chinese
Yuan
terms,
widened
to
CNY703.73
billion
from
the
previous
figure
of
CNY586.40
billion.
Additional
details
of
the
report
revealed
that
exports
rose
10.7%
YoY
in
June
vs.
11.2%
seen
in
May,
while
the
country’s
imports
dropped
0.6%
YoY
during
the
reported
month
vs.
the
5.2%
previous.
This,
however,
does
little
to
provide
any
impetus
to
the
AUD/JPY
cross.

From
a
technical
perspective,
spot
prices,
so
far,
have
been
struggling
to
build
on
the
strength
beyond
the
38.2%

Fibonacci
retracement
level
of
the
downfall
from
the
overnight
swing
high.
Moreover,
oscillators
on
hourly
charts
are
still
holding
in
the
negative
territory
and
warrant
some
caution
for
bullish
traders.
A
sustained
strength
beyond
the
said
barrier,
however,
should
pave
the
way
for
a
further
intraday
appreciating
move. 

The
AUD/JPY
cross
might
then
aim
to
reclaim
the
108.00
mark,
which
now
coincides
with
the
50%
Fibo.
level.
Some
follow-through
buying
will
suggest
that
the
corrective
pullback
has
run
its
course
and
set
the
stage
for
the
resumption
of
the
uptrend
witnessed
over
the
past
month
or
so. 

On
the
flip
side,
the
107.35
area,
or
the
23.6%
Fibo.
level
now
seems
to
protect
the
immediate
downside
ahead
of
the
107.00
mark
and
the
Asian
session
low,
around
the
106.75
region.
A
convincing
break
below
will
be
seen
as
a
fresh
trigger
for
bearish
traders,
making
the
AUD/JPY
cross
vulnerable
to
accelerate
the
fall
further
towards
the
106.50-106.40
intermediate
support
en
route
to
the
106.00
mark
and
the
105.65
region.

AUD/JPY
1-hour
chart