General Market Analysis – 23/04/25

US Stocks Rally on Trade Optimism – Nasdaq up 2.8%

US stocks rallied in trading yesterday to notch up their best day in two weeks as trade deal optimism swept the market. The Nasdaq led the way higher, closing the day up 2.77%, erasing a similar loss from the day before, while the S&P gained 2.51% and the Dow rose 2.66%. The dollar also managed a good rally, with the DXY up 0.71% to 98.99, while haven currencies—the yen and Swiss franc—took big hits. US Treasury yields were mixed after Donald Trump advised that he has no intention of firing Jerome Powell. The 2-year was up 5.4 basis points to 3.817%, while the 10-year slid 1.2 basis points to 4.399%. Oil prices rallied as US sanctions hit Iran, with Brent up 1.55% to $67.29 and WTI up 1.76% to $63.49. Gold had a big day, initially rallying to another record level at $3,500 before crashing in later sessions to ultimately finish down 1.19% on the day at $3,380.41 an ounce.

Start of a Haven Unwind??

Some traders are asking if we are about to see a strong run of haven trades unwinding in the next few days as trade deal optimism sweeps the market, or if last night’s moves are just a brief flicker of silver lining in the clouds of a longer-running trade war. Major haven trades—gold, yen, and Swiss franc—all saw big moves last night, and traders are now looking to see if a top has been put in place or if these moves are just going to give us better levels to buy. Gold has rallied over 18% in the face of tariff announcements this month, while USDJPY sank 7% and USDCHF dropped over 9%. We have just seen some good relief rallies from risk in all these products—gold down 1.2% on the day and nearly 5% from its record high, with USDJPY and USDCHF up 2.4% and 2.8% respectively from their recent lows. The next 24 hours could be crucial for all these products, with any updates from affected parties likely to see equally big moves in either direction.

Macroeconomic Calendar in Focus Today

Geopolitical updates continue to dominate market moves in the current environment, but traders will see a focus move back to underlying fundamentals today as the macroeconomic calendar picks up after a quiet few days. The Asian session is expected to start on the front foot after a strong surge on Wall Street overnight, and there is little on the event calendar to disturb that momentum. However, a raft of Flash PMI numbers across the rest of the trading day will have investors analyzing data to see what damage tariffs have done to purchasing managers’ confidence. We have Flash Services and Manufacturing data due out from Australia, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US, as well as New Home Sales numbers in the States. With several central bankers set to speak, including the Fed’s Goolsbee and Waller, as well as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, we could be in for another lively day’s trading.

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