The ECB is 100% going to cut today but what’s expected for the other central banks?

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 86 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 79 bps (99% probability of rate cut at today’s decision)
• BoE: 79 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 45 bps (52% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 118 bps (78% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 78 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 24 bps (74% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

* for the RBA, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 14 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Since yesterday’s update we got some slight changes in the pricing. There is a less dovish pricing for the RBA following the solid Australian employment report today (although it remains pretty aggressive compared to just three weeks ago). Some positive comments from BoJ officials regarding the need of rate hikes have also impacted the expectations with a slightly more hawkish pricing.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.