Goldman Sachs puts a number on what level of tariffs is expected

April 2 is creeping closer and the headlines are dizzying. We started off the week with big pickup in risk assets after a pair of reports saying that Trump was going to leave a few countries off the tariff list.

Today though, the FT reports that Trump is considering a two-step approach that would start with emergency powers and then shift to Section 338 tariffs. People familiar say autos could use a previous national security investigation. Finally, one approach could use Section 122 that would allow tariffs of 15% for up to 150 days.

Another part is using tariffs to raise revenues for tax cuts. That would need to be encoded into law but it would likely require congressional help.

Through all of it, no one really knows what to expect.

Goldman Sachs highlight the more-benign view on tariffs this week. Don’t be fooled, they write: It could be a negative surprise as Trump imposes them from a high level for a negotiating tool, and will likely want to start from a position of strength.

A recent Goldman survey of market participants estimates reciprocal tariffs in April will amount to a 9% reciprocal tariff rate but Goldman itself expects that the initial tariff rate could be double that, which would set the market up for a negative surprise.

I think that’s a flimsy metric but there isn’t much to go on right now and I think it’s an important benchmark to set.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.