Traders shrink bets on Fed rate cuts following the US PMIs

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 59 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 50 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 40 bps (55% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 46 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 65 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 60 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 5 bps (82% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 36 bps (74% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

As we can see the market pricing for Fed easing got pared back to 59 bps from 69 bps before the US PMIs release. That’s not a material change but it was enough to give the US Dollar a short term boost as Treasury yields continue to pull back from the lows reached at the peak of the growth scare.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.