Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 14 Mar. Sharply lower Univ. of Michigan ignored. Stocks up

• Broader US stock indices close higher but still down for the fourth consecutive week
• Pres. Trump: Will know more about Russia’s readiness to agree to a cease-fire on Monday
• What technical levels are in play for the AUDUSD & NZDUSD heading into next weeks trading
• J.P. Morgan cuts 2025 US growth outlook 1.6% from 1.9%
• EU trade chief Sefcovic: There is a lot of work ahead
• New prime minister Carney: This is a time of great consequence for our country
• Major European indices close higher on the day
• Russia’s Putin: On talks with the US, situation is starting to move
• US Sec. of State Rubio: There is reason to be cautiously optimistic on Ukraine Russia
• Ukraine’s Zelenskyy: We have good chance to end this war quickly
• The EURUSD is trading back near technical levels after the run higher stalls
• Reuters poll: Euro zone economy to grow 0.9% and 1.3% in 2025/2026
• Trump on talks with Putin yesterday: We had very good and productive discussions
• University of Michigan sentiment preliminary for March 57.9 versus 63.1 estimate
• US stocks move higher at the open as US government avoids a shutdown.
• Canadian Foreign Min. Joly: Canada wants to be closer to Europe, UK. USDCAD works lower.
• Incoming German Chancelor Merz:Outlines defense spending exemptions & spending initiatives
• Canada manufacturing sales for January 1.7% versus 2.0% estimate
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Germany agrees on debt deal, gold clips $3,000 level
• Germany’s Greens party said to be satisfied with agreement on debt deal
• Germany’s CDU, SPD have agreed on a solution with Greens on financial package – report
• Gold hits $3,000 for the first time

Markets:

• Gold hits $3000 for the first time ever. Backs off. The price is down -6 dollars or -0.20% at $2982.67. The high price today reached $3004.94. Gold is up 2.51% for the week. For the year, will prices are up 13.65%.
• Silver is trading down $-0.19 or -0.58% at $3.66. For the week, the price is up 3.58%. Silver is up 16.54% this year.
• Crude oil is trading up $0.62 or 0.93% at $67.17. For the week crude oil is trading up 0.21%. For the year, crude oil is down -6.33%.
• Bitcoin is trading up $2935 and $84,014. For the week the price is up over 4%

In the forex market, the USD was mixed. The greenback was higher vs.:

• JPY +0.54%
• GBP +0.10%
• CHF +0.32%

The dollar was lower vs:

• EUR -0.29%
• CAD -0.55%
• AUD -0.72%
• NZD -1.00%

In the US debt market, yields moved higher today:

• two year yield 4.021%, +6.8 basis points.
• Five year yield 4.091%, +6.3 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.317%, +4.2 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.627%, +3.2 basis points

For the trading week, yields were little changed:

• 2 year rose 2.1 basis point
• 5 year rose 0.9 basis points
• 10 year rose 1.1 basis point
• 30 year rose 2.4 basis points.

In the US stock market, the broader indices close sharply higher:

• S&P index rose 117.42 points or 2.13% at 5638.94
• NASDAQ index rose 451.07 points or 2.61% at 17754.09

However, for the week, each of the broader indices fell for the fourth consecutive week

• The S&P index fell by -2.27% this week. The prior three weeks have seen declines of -1.66%, -0.90% and -3.10%.
• The NASDAQ index fell by -2.43% this week. The prior three weeks of seen declines of -2.1% -3.47%, and -2.43%.

Technically, the NASDAQ Index did fall to the 38.2% of the move up from the October 2024 low at 17278 and found support buyers.That hold give traders some hope that a low is in place. It will take a move below the level to disappoint the buyers. Although the price bounced, the index remains well below the 200 day MA at 18417.78.

For the S&P index, the price did not reach the 38.2% like the Nasdaq, but the low for the week did take the index down about 10.5% into what is considered correction territory. The bounce today, took the price back higher. On the topside, a swing area between 5642 to 5669.67 needs to be broken, followed by the 200 day MA at 5740.34.

The rise in the US stocks came despite a sharp fall in the University of Michigan sentiment index and its major components.

In March 2025, the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers reported a significant decline in consumer sentiment and a notable rise in inflation expectations compared to February 2025:​

• Consumer Sentiment Index: Decreased from 64.7 to 57.9, marking an 11% drop and reaching the lowest level since November 2022. ​

• Current Economic Conditions Index: Fell from 75.1 to 69.3, indicating a 7.7% decline. ​

• Index of Consumer Expectations: Declined from 58.4 to 53.3, a decrease of 8.7%. ​

• One-Year Inflation Expectations: Increased from 4.3% to 4.9%, the highest reading since late 2022. ​

• Five-Year Inflation Expectations: Rose from 3.5% to 3.9%, reaching the highest level since early 1993.

• Democrats’ expectations dropped 20%, Republicans’ fell 10%, and Independents’ declined 12%, reaching their lowest level since 2023.

This downturn in consumer sentiment reflects growing concerns about economic policies, including tariffs and trade tensions, which are contributing to heightened inflation expectations. The broad-based decline across various demographic groups suggests widespread apprehension about future economic conditions. Elevated inflation expectations present challenges for policymakers, particularly the Federal Reserve, as they balance efforts to manage inflation and support economic growth.

Next week, the market will be focused on the Fed rate decision, which will take place on Wednesday. At the meeting the Fed will also release the dot plot and the central tendencies for GDP, Inflation and Unemployment. Will the Fed increase the rate cuts to 3 from 2? Will they be as negative on inflation as the Univ. of Michigan?

In addition to the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England will all announce interest rate decisions.

Here is a list of the major releases next week:

Monday, March 17

• 8:30am USD: Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: -0.4%)
• 8:30am USD: Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: -0.9%)

Tuesday, March 18

• 8:30am CAD: CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.1%)
• 8:30am CAD: Median CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.7%, Previous: 2.7%)
• 8:30am CAD: Trimmed CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.8%, Previous: 2.7%)
• Tentative JPY: BOJ Policy Rate (Forecast: <0.50%, Previous: <0.50%)
• Tentative JPY: Monetary Policy Statement
• Tentative JPY: BOJ Press Conference

Wednesday, March 19

• 2 pm USD: Federal Funds Rate (Forecast: 4.50%, Previous: 4.50%)
• 2 pm USD: FOMC Economic Projections
• 2 pm USD: FOMC Statement
• 2:30pm USD: FOMC Press Conference
• 5:45pm NZD: GDP q/q (Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: -1.0%)
• All Day JPY: Bank Holiday
• 8:30pm AUD: Employment Change (Forecast: 31.4K, Previous: 44.0K)
• 8:30pm AUD: Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%)

Thursday, March 20

• 3:00am GBP: Claimant Count Change (Forecast: 7.9K, Previous: 22.0K)
• 4:30am CHF: SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
• 4:30am CHF: SNB Policy Rate (Forecast: 0.25%, Previous: 0.50%)
• 5:00am CHF: SNB Press Conference
• 8:00am GBP: Monetary Policy Summary
• 8:00am GBP: MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (Forecast: 0-2-7, Previous: 0-9-0)
• 8:00am GBP: Official Bank Rate (Forecast: 4.50%, Previous: 4.50%)
• 8:30am GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 8:30am USD: Unemployment Claims (Forecast: 222K, Previous: 220K)
• 12:50am CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

Friday, March 21

• 8:30am CAD: Retail Sale (Forecast -0.4%, previous +2.5%)
• 8:30am CAD: Core Retail Sales (Forecast 0.0%, previous 2.7%)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.