The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 24 February 2025

The macroeconomic calendar is more subdued this week, but there are still some major events scheduled that could trigger significant market moves. The Asian Monday open looks vulnerable for euro traders, given that the German Federal Elections took place over the weekend, which could lead to heightened volatility in the first session of the week.

Data is relatively thin on the ground, although we do see more Tier 1 releases from the US this week, culminating with the Fed’s favourite inflation indicator, the Core PCE Price Index, on Friday. Additionally, Aussie-dollar traders will be paying close attention to the key CPI data when it is released midweek following last week’s ‘hawkish’ cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It could be a lively opening session of the day for Euro traders, with results from the German Federal election set to filter through and liquidity should be thinner to add to the mix with Japanese markets on holiday. There is little else on the calendar during the other two sessions, apart from the German IFO data early in the London day, although expect the impact from that to be overshadowed by the election results.

Another quiet day on the macroeconomic calendar, with little to move the dial for both of the first two sessions of the day, although we do hear from Buba President Nagel during the Euro session. We do have the first key US data releases in the New York day, with CB Consumer Confidence number due out alongside the Richmond Manufacturing Index data.

Australian markets will be in focus early in the Asian session, with key inflation CPI data due out; focus will then move north to Japanese markets for more inflation data, this time the BOJ Core CPI number, although the Aussie date is expected to have more of an impact. Once again, there is little scheduled in the European day, but we have more US data once New York opens, with New Home Sales numbers due out as well as the usual weekly Crude Oil Inventory data.

The event calendar does pick up for the last couple of sessions of the day. There is nothing of note in the Asian session on Thursday, but once London opens we have both the Spanish CPI data due as well as Swiss GDP numbers. There is a big data dump from the US, with the Prelim GDP, Durable Goods and Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers all out at the same time early in the day. They are followed up later by the Pending Homes Sales update.

It should be a busy last few sessions of the week on Friday, with key data out in all three time zones. Tokyo CPI numbers will keep Yen traders on their toes in the Asian session before London opens and we have the key German Prelim CPI data out. However, the US session probably has the propensity to move the market the most of Friday (and maybe the pick of the bunch for the whole week), with Canadian GDP numbers out alongside the key US Core PCE Price Index number. These are followed up by the Chicago PMI numbers later in the day. And sharp-eyed traders will also notice that we have key Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing numbers out over the weekend.

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