Goldman Sachs – China trade war retaliation measures to have a limited energy price impact

Goldman Sachs are about as caught up in headline ping-pong as the rest of us.

From earlier in the week:

• Goldman Sachs: We think Canada and Mexico tariffs are likely to be short-lived

• Goldman Sachs says the medium term risks to oil prices is skewed to the downside

Most recently from GS:

On China – “large tariffs pose downside risk to our S&P 500 earnings estimates and return expectations.”

• firms absorbing higher input costs resulting from tariffs would squeeze margins and hit profits
• if firms pass the higher costs on to their customers sales might suffer
• every 5% increase in the US tariff rate would lessen the S&P 500 earnings per share by about 1% to 2%
• if planned tariffs become reality GS will reduce its S&P 500 earnings-per-share forecasts by roughly 2% to 3% … “not taking into account any additional impact from major financial conditions tightening or a larger-than-expected effect of policy uncertainty on corporate or consumer behavior”
• “China retaliatory measures to have only limited impact on energy prices”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.