The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 13 January 2025

Markets returned from their post-New Year’s break with aplomb last week, culminating in a lively final session as the US Non-Farm Payrolls came in much stronger than expected and the unemployment rate dipped.

This week sees more key US data on the schedule, with the focus shifting from employment to inflation. Investors will also concentrate on the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump, with plenty of volatility expected from updates related to the new government as well as some key data releases from other jurisdictions, particularly the UK.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

Asian markets will have reduced liquidity as Japanese markets are closed for the day. There is little on the event calendar across all three trading sessions; however, investors expect movements as the market continues to react to Friday’s significant US employment data update.

Japanese markets return to the Asian session, although there is once again little on the event calendar to drive significant movement. A similar trend persists during the London session. However, the first major US data release of the week, the PPI numbers, is scheduled soon after the New York open.

The event schedule starts to pick up on Wednesday. While the Asian session remains relatively quiet, the latter two sessions feature some of the week’s most significant data releases. CPI data for both the UK and the US is due, and both events have the potential to strongly move their respective markets, given recent changes in rate expectations for both jurisdictions. Additionally, the Empire State Manufacturing Index data will be released during the US session, and several FOMC members are scheduled to speak.

Thursday is likely the busiest day of the week for macroeconomic data. Australian markets will take center stage early with the release of key employment numbers. The London session features more critical UK data, this time in the form of GDP figures. US markets will face a barrage of releases, including Retail Sales numbers, weekly unemployment claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, all scheduled simultaneously.

Friday could also see plenty of activity during the first couple of sessions. A significant data drop from China is expected midway through the Asian session, including GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales figures. During the European session, UK markets will be in focus again with the release of the latest Retail Sales data. The New York session is expected to be quieter than the previous days, with only the Building Permits numbers for traders to monitor.

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