US non-farm payrolls data due imminently – the critical key ranges for estimates to watch

The December 2024 employment report is due from the US on Friday, January 10, 2025 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT.

You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below:

• The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result.
• The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the ‘expected’ in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

Headline NFP number:

• 120k to 200k

Unemployment rate:

• 4.1% to 4.4%

Average hourly earnings m/m:

• 0.1% to 0.4%

Average hourly earnings y/y:

• 3.8% to 4.1%

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Why is knowledge of such ranges important? I‘ve a rundown in my post from earlier, here.

Check also the distribution of forecasts and why it’s another important input in market’s reaction:

• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.