The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 02 December 2024

The macroeconomic calendar picks up significantly this week, with the major focus on Friday when the US employment data is set to be released. There are plenty of other updates scheduled in the preceding days, and traders are anticipating a lively week ahead.

The US economy takes centre stage, with several Federal Reserve members scheduled to speak, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Alongside a wealth of data, most investors hope for a clearer indication of the Fed’s next move by the end of the week.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

The early focus in Asian markets will be on Australia as the latest retail sales figures are released early in the session. The European session features a raft of Final PMI data releases, although these are far less impactful than the Flash data. The New York session sees the full return of US markets and data releases, with ISM Manufacturing PMI due before we hear from Federal Reserve members Waller and Williams later in the day.

The Asian session is relatively quiet, but attention will shift to Swiss markets during the European open when the latest CPI data is released. The first (but certainly not the last) jobs numbers of the week will follow soon after the US open, with the JOLTS Job Openings report. Later, more Federal Reserve members—this time Kugler and Goolsbee—are scheduled to speak.

The Asian open will once again focus on Australia, with the release of key GDP data early in the day. In Europe, the spotlight will turn to the UK as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak midway through the session, followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde later. The New York session is expected to be lively, with both ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data scheduled for release, followed by remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the day.

The Asian session is likely to remain quiet, but attention will return to the UK during the London open, with Construction PMI data scheduled for release. In the New York session, more US jobs data will be released, including the usual weekly unemployment claims, before the focus shifts north of the border for Canadian Ivey PMI figures.

Friday’s focus will firmly be on the key US employment data. With little else of note during the earlier sessions, traders expect a relatively quiet day until the New York open. As usual, the Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate will all be updated simultaneously, and significant volatility is anticipated around the release. Canadian employment numbers and US University of Michigan data are also scheduled for later in the session, but the US employment data is expected to dominate market movements.

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