Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 27 Nov: Core PCE inflation remains sticky but as expected

• A down day for the major indices ahead of the Thanksgiving day holiday
• RBNZ Asst Gov Silk: Manufacturing, retail, construction will start to see recovery in 2025
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 2.7% from 2.6% on November 19
• Crude oil futures settles at $68.72
• Assuming Trump actually puts the tariffs on Canada and Mexico
• Bitcoin races up to 100 and 200 hour MA and finds some apprehension
• When the bond market turns, USD/JPY gets crushed. 5 reasons behind the drop
• European equity close: A third day of declines this week
• US sells 7-year notes at 4.183% vs 4.197% WI
• EIA weekly US oil inventories -1844K vs -605K expected
• US pending home sales for October 2.0% versus -2.0% estimate
• US October core PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expected
• Kickstart your trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCHF
• US October durable goods orders MoM 0.2% vs 0.5% expected
• US October advance wholesale inventories +0.2% vs -0.2% prior
• US October advance goods trade balance -$99.1 billion vs -$108.7 billion prior
• US Q3 GDP (second estimate) +2.8 vs +2.8% expected
• US initial jobless claims 213K vs 216K estimate
• What is driving the FX markets technically. A look at the major currency pairs today
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar eases lower ahead of US data flurry
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 22 November +6.3% vs +1.7% prior

Markets:

• Gold up $4.02 or 0.15% at $2636.60
• US 10-year yield 4.249%, -5.2 basis points
• US 2-year yield 4.223%, -3.1 basis points
• WTI crude oil down four cents or -0.2% and $68.72
• S&P 500 fell -22.89 points or -0.38% to5998.74
• NASDAQ fell -113.82 points or 0.59% to 19060.48
• Russell 2000 rose 1.88 points or 0.08% to 2426.19 .
• Dow fell -138.25 points or -0.31% to 44722.06

No new records were recorded in the major indices today (S&P and Dow closed at records yesterday)

The US dollar is trading lower versus all the major currency pairs. The dollar index is down -0.89% on the day

• EUR, -0.75%
• JPY -1.28%
• GBP, -0.86%
• CHF -0.5%
• CAD -0.19%
• AUD -0.39%
• NZD -1.03%

The US PCE data for the month of October was released today. The favored measure of inflation from the Federal Reserve came in as expected with the headline of 0.2% and the core of 0.3%. Year on year measures came in at 2.3% and 2.8% respectively. Although as expected, inflation remains sticky.

In other data today,

• Personal income was higher than expected or 0.6% versus 0.3%, and consumption was also higher and +0.4% versus 0.3% estimate.
• Initial jobless claims continue to skim near lower levels and 213K vs 216K estimate . However, continuing claims rose to the highest level since November 2021 for both the weekly number and the four week moving average indicative of a more weaker employment picture
• The 2nd look at US GDP came in as expected at 2.8% with consumption and 3.5% versus 3.7% in the initial guesstimate. PS The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 is also solid at 2.7% vs 2.6% previously.
• Durable goods orders were marginally lower than expectations but revisions were higher.
• Advance goods trade balance came in at $-99.08 billion which was higher than the deficit -108.2B last month The trade numbers for goods especially are elevated due to potential dockworkers strikes (for last month), and may now be influenced by tariffs under the Trump administration.

A widening trade deficit might solicit a lower dollar over time making US goods abroad more competitive.

US yields moved lower with the two-year down -3.1 basis points any 10 year down -5.2 basis points. The US treasury successfully auctioned off 7-year notes with a tail of -1.4 basis points. The bid to cover was higher than the 5-month average at 2.71X vs 2.59X average. The 2 and 5 year auctions were also well received earlier this week.

Bitcoin moved back to the upside after bottoming at $90,742 yesterday. The price today is up $4400 or 4.7% and $96,328. The high price last week reached just under the $100K level at $98,800.

Technically:

• EURUSD moved above it 38.2% retracement of the November trading range at 1.05628. It is trading right around that level going into the close for the day. Stay above that retracement level would give the buyers were confidence. Moving below Macy the price rotated back toward the Tuesday high 1.0544. A move below that level would target the 200 hour moving average of 1.0520 in the new trading day.
• USDJPY fell sharply today after falling yesterday. The move lower today broke below the old November below reached on November 6 and 151.275. The current prices trading at 151.155. If that old low can put a ceiling on the correction, more selling can be anticipated in the new trading day. Move above and we could see rotation back toward its 200 day moving average of 151.980.
• GBPUSD: The GBPUSD extended above its 200 hour moving average of 1.2613 and also above the high prices from Monday and Tuesday near the same level.That gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher. The run to the upside did not stop until reaching 1.26933 which was about six pips short of the 38.2% retracement of the November trading range at 1.2699 (and the natural resources at 1.2700). The current prices trading at 1.2678. Close support is at 1.2660 in the new trading day. Getting above the 1.2700 level would have traders targeting the falling 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.27266.
• NZDUSD: The NZDUSD was not influenced by the 50 basis point from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The price is up 1.06% on the day. The move to the upside took the price up to test is falling 100 bar moving average only 4- hour chart and 0.5904 (currently). The current prices trading at 0.58947 with close support at the broken 38.2% retracement of the November trading range at 0.5889. ON the topside a break of the 0.5904 MA level would have traders looking toward the 50% of the month range at 0.59173. Conversely, break back below the 38.2% at 0.5889 could turn the buyers back to sellers after the corrective move higher over the last two trading days.

Thank you for your support on the day before Thanksgiving. Good fortune with your trading.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.