General Market Analysis – 06/11/24

US Stocks Rally on Election Day – Nasdaq up 1.3%

US stock markets had a strong day as voters headed to the polls, with all three major indices closing near or over a percent higher. The Dow gained 0.91%, the S&P 1.04%, and the Nasdaq led with a 1.28% rise. Treasury yields edged upwards as Trump gained ground in some polls, with the 2-year yield up 4.6 basis points to 4.220% and the 10-year up 4.7 basis points to 4.358%, while the dollar dipped to a three-week low, with the DXY closing at 103.60. Oil prices also rose, driven by a potential storm in the Gulf of Mexico, with Brent up 0.6% to $75.53 and WTI up 0.7% to $71.99. Gold prices inched higher, rising 0.2% to $2,740.95, amid election uncertainties.

Neck and Neck as Vote Counting Begins

Traders are gearing up for a volatile few sessions as the US election results roll in amid a tight race. The Asian trading session is expected to absorb most of the initial volatility as results trickle in, with particular focus on the battleground states of Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina. A surprise result in any other state could have major implications, yet these battlegrounds are widely considered decisive. Given the numerous possible outcomes and scenarios, markets may react quickly, and traders will need to remain vigilant. While the coming sessions present ample opportunities, they also bring substantial risks.

US Election Results to Steer Markets Today

Election results are set to dominate market movements across all three trading sessions today, as investors try to gauge the likely shape of the US government in the months ahead. With limited macroeconomic data on the calendar, the election is expected to take centre stage. The Asian session has already seen the release of New Zealand’s latest employment figures, showing an increase in the unemployment rate to a near four-year high, albeit below expectations. In Europe, attention will turn to the UK’s Construction PMI data, while the New York session will feature Canada’s Ivey PMI and the latest US Crude Oil inventories. However, these releases are likely to be overshadowed by election-related market movements.

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