ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Australian headline CPI dips into target band (but …)

• ECB’s Schnabel is speaking on Wednesday
• Australian inflation data earlier “close but no ….” rate cut
• Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Preview – Don’t Hold Your Breath for a Hike
• Australian inflation data – what could drive a December Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut
• Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Deputy Rogers are speaking again on Wednesday
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1390 (vs. estimate at 7.1398)
• AUD/USD little changed after the Australian inflation data – minor wobble
• Australian Q3 inflation headline 2.8% y/y (expected 2.9%)
• UK budget: Commerzbank analysts optimistic about long-term growth potential
• Eastern Japan exits “zero nuclear power plants” – Onagawa 2 shut in 2012, restarted now
• US election – Women are far outpacing men in voting early.
• Goldman Sachs forecast gold to climb higher than previously expected, target $2,900 /ounce
• US jobs report Friday “will likely be messier than usual … recent hurricanes and strike”
• US oil and gas production climbed to record highs under Biden, this election won’t impact
• Recent surge in US mortgage rates a taste of what’s to come
• ICYMI – Japan economy minister Akazawa warned on impacts of a weak yen
• Chair Schlegel – Swiss National Bank could cut interest rates further in coming quarters
• MUFG says US dollar to rise if Trump wins, but much of it priced in already
• Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw vs. build expected
• Private survey of oil inventories shows surprise headline draw
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US job openings take a surprise fall
• Bank of Canada Governor Macklem says beginning to see the impact of recent rate cuts
• Alphabet beats: EPS 2000 $2.12 versus $1.84. Rev $88.27 billion versus $86.31 billion
• NASDAQ index closes at a new record level
• Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 30 October, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

It
was another subdued session for major FX. Political
machinations in Japan to form the next government continue, and they did so
today against the backdrop of a quiet yen. USD/JPY has barely tracked
a 30 point range.

On
the data agenda were Australian inflation figures:

• the
  Q3 headline rate came in at 2.8% y/y, below the top of the 2-3% RBA
  target band and its lowest since early 2021
• the
  Q3 core ‘trimmed mean’ y/y came in at a still lofty 3.5%
• interestingly,
  the y/y for September month came in at 2.1% – the monthly reads are
  not the ‘official’ CPI rate, but encouraging nonetheless

The
caveat to the low headline rate is that it benefitted from government
temporary rebates and subsidies (cost of living relief). These will
roll off and headline inflation is likely to pop back up again in the
quarters ahead.

The
data barely moved the needle on RBA rate cut expectations, many
analysts (not all) favour a February 2025 cut while market pricing is
looking to May 2025. AUD/USD didn’t move around much, a slight dip
and rally and since has lost ground to its session low, helped along
by a broader USD bid.

EUR,
NZD, CAD, GBP have all lost a little ground against the USD. There is
little fresh news flow.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.