Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16Oct: EURUSD falls below its 200 day MA ahead of ECB.

• US stocks rebound and retrace some of the declines from yesterday’s trade
• Canadian cardholder spending data “nothing short of abysmal” in latest RBC report
• Crude oil settled at $70.39
• The euro slumps to a two-month low ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision
• RBC: Job market poses bigger risk to Canadian economy than mortgage renewals
• Israel assure US that they will act quickly to improve dire humanitarian situation in Gaza
• Goldman Sachs: Caution on near-term EUR/USD downside despite weak momentum
• European equity close: Nice day in the periphery, not so much in the core
• US election FX outcomes: What to trade on various Trump and Harris scenarios
• Russell 2000 rises to the highest since July as bank stocks rally
• Kickstart the FX trading for Oct. 16 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
• Gold flirts with a new record high. Eyes on China and bonds
• US September import prices -0.4% versus -0.2% estimate
• Canada August manufacturing sales -1.3% vs -1.5% expected
• The USD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA session begins
• Canada September housing starts 223.8K vs 237.5K expected
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Sterling falls on softer UK inflation data
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 11 October -17.0% vs -5.1% prior

The economic calendar was light with Import/export prices the only releases in the US. Import prices fell -0.4% vs -0.2% estimate. Export prices fell more with a decline of -0.7% vs -0.4%.

• Import prices YoY moved back into negative terrritory,at -0.1% vs +0.8% last month which was the first 12-month drop since February 2024.
• Export prices fell -2.1% year over year. That was the largest 12- month increase since January 2024.

Fed officials were conspicuously absent as well.

Tomorrow things heat up with retail sales , unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index leading a slew of announcement. Below is a summary of the releases:

8:30 am:

• Core Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.1%
• Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.1%
• Unemployment Claims: Forecast 241K, Previous 258K
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Forecast 4.2, Previous 1.7

9:15 am:

• Capacity Utilization Rate: Forecast 77.9%, Previous 78.0%
• Industrial Production m/m: Forecast -0.1%, Previous 0.8%

10:00 am:

• Business Inventories m/m: Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4%
• NAHB Housing Market Index: Forecast 43, Previous 41

Today, the day is ending with the CAD the strongest of the majors followed by the USD. The GBP is the weakest. CPI data the UK push the pound lower. The CAD rose despite the RBC report showing that the job market poses bigger risk to Canadian economy, and cardholder spending data was “nothing short of abysmal”.

In defense of the gain in the CAD, the USDCAD has moved up for nine consecutive days and over 400 pips over that time (yesterday the price moved lower).

Today, sellers continue to probe to the downside after falling below its 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.3778). There is close support at the broken 61.8% retracement level at 1.37449, and below that at the low price from last Friday after the better-than-expected Canadian job report at 1.3724. The rising 200-hour moving average is moving toward that level and 1.37135 currently. It would take a move below all those levels to increase the bearish bias and control. Absent that, and the buyers are still in play.

The EURUSD today fell below its 200-day moving average ahead of the ECB rate decision tomorrow. The expectations are for a 25 basis point cut to 3.40% from 3.65% when the rate decision is announced and 8:15 AM ET. The 200-day moving average comes in at 1.08728. It would now take a move above that level and also the 1.0900 level (and stay above) to lead to more upside corrective probing. Absent that, and the sellers remain more in control.

In the US stock market, the major indices rebounded after yesterday’s declines:

• After declines of -324.80 points in the Dow yesterday, it retraced all those declines and closed higher by 337.28 points or 0.79% at 43077.70
• S &P index fell -44.59 points or -0.76% at 5815.26 yesterday. Today the index rose 27.21 points or 0.47% to 5842.47
• Nasdaq index fell -187.10 or -1.01% and 18315.59 yesterday. Today, the index clawed back 51.49 points or 0.28% to 18367.08.

The small-cap Russell 2000 surged 36.85 points or 1.64% at 2286.67. Yesterday the Russell 2000 we can a 1.17 point gain.

In the US debt market yields were steady but down on the day:

• 2 year yield 3.943%, -1.2 basis points
• 5-year yield 3.847%, -1.4 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.018%, -2.0 basis points.
• 30 year yield 4.301%, -2.7 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.