ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY above 149, then verbal intervention and drop

• Japan finance minister Kato says there are pros and cons to the weak yen
• Federal Reserve speakers Monday include Bowman, Kashkari, Bostic and Musalem
• Goldman Sachs upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweight
• European Central Bank speakers on Monday include chief economist Philip Lane
• China gold reserves in September unchanged from August, 5th month in a row
• AUD traders heads up – two big events coming up from the RBA on Tuesday
• China / Hong Kong stocks rising again – expectations of more China stimulus on Tuesday
• HSBC expects six more rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve by June 2025
• Bank of Japan rate hike plans “face political curve ball”
• Australian inflation: Melbourne Institute CPI for September 2024: 0.1% m/m (prior -0.1%)
• Japan’s yen intervention official says will monitor FX including speculative movement
• Further signs of a loosening jobs market in the UK – wage growth slows, hiring drop
• Trump is promising tariffs of up to 200% on vehicles imported from Mexico
• ECB Villeroy says Bank will quite probably cut rates in October, inflation undershoot risk
• Senior Chinese officials briefing Tuesday, steps to implement economic growth policies
• USD/JPY traded above 149.00 early Monday
• Goldman Sachs on well above expectations US jobs report, see a 25bp Fed November rate cut
• New Zealand – RBNZ shadow board equally divided on 25 or 50bp rate cut this week
• US economy is as good as it ever gets
• Weekend news – Flights from all Iran’s airports cancelled
• AUD traders heads up – Australia switched to daylight saving over the weekend
• Germany’s economy ministry forecasts a recession
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 7 October, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Saudi Arabia has raised its main oil prices for buyers in Asia, cut price to Europe and US
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 07 October 2024
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: US CPI, RBNZ, Minutes from FOMC, ECB and RBA, and Canada jobs
• Weekly Market Outlook (07-11 October)
• Crude oil price forecast 🛢️🚀
• Saudi Arabia has raised its main oil prices for buyers in Asia, well above expectations
• China house sales rose over the holiday period – property sector recovery?

The
rally for USD/JPY on Friday carried on in the very early pre-Tokyo
hours here, to above 149.10. It didn’t sustain above 149 for too
long though and as it drifted a little lower we had verbal
intervention comments from Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance
Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura. He is the official
who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary.
His comments were not unusual, along the lines that he will will
monitor FX moves including speculative movement, but they were enough
to add some selling pressure. As I post USD/JPY has dipped as low as
back under 148.25 and then bounced to 148.65 or so.

Just prior to hitting send on this post we’ve had further comments, this time from Japan finance minister Kato, cutting just a few points off USD/JPY.

News
and data flow was otherwise very light. The People’s Bank of China
did announce that its reserves of gold remained steady for a fifth
consecutive month.

Apart
from JPY major FX was sedate, trading only small ranges.

Chinese
equities / Hong Kong rallied again. A press conference has been
scheduled for Tuesday (when mainland Chinese markets reopen after the
week-long holiday) by the state planner, the National Development and
Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC). It’ll
cover the topic of “systematic implementation of a package of
incremental policies, the solid promotion of upward trend of the
economy and structural improvement, and the sustained improvement in
the development trend”, and answer questions from journalists. This
is at 10am Beijing time (0200 GMT).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.