New Zealand Treasury don’t expect activity to have picked up much in the latest quarter

Treasury says that while the June quarter GDP fell, more recent evidence suggests we are at or near the bottom of the economic cycle:

• June quarter GDP fell by 0.2%, less than expected, with population growth masking economic weakness.

But,, its not a lock … Treasury go on to say that while interest rates began to ease, activity has likely remained flat through the September quarter with no firm sign of a recovery just yet.

And add to keep an eye out:

• With a significant amount of data due in the next fortnight, we should know more about where we are at in the cycle.

Other points:

• Consumer and business expectations are improving, indicating a potential economic bottoming.
• The current account deficit remained high at 6.7% of GDP due to slow recovery in service exports and strong import volumes.
• OECD forecasts stable global growth, with easing inflation and supportive policies in China and the U.S.
• U.S. and China implemented policy easing to support their economies

Earlier:

• New Zealand data – Q3 business cnfidence -1% (prior was -44%)

NZD/USD is little net changed on the day so far, around 0.6342

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.