The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 23 September 2024

Global markets had a strong performance last week after the Federal Reserve Bank cut rates in the US by 0.5%. By the end of trading on Friday, US stock markets were nearing record highs, and traders are anticipating further movement in what promises to be a significant week for event risk. There is a wealth of key data updates scheduled across major economies and more central bank rate decisions to come, with the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Swiss National Bank likely to be the main highlights.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

Asian markets are expected to start the week on a positive note, with US stocks closing near record highs. However, Yen traders will remain cautious as Japanese markets are closed, following the recent Bank of Japan rate decision. A series of Service and Manufacturing PMI data is due over the next two sessions, with figures from France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US likely to keep traders engaged.

The focus will be on Australian markets during the Asian session, as the Reserve Bank of Australia releases its latest rate update in the afternoon. The European session will feature the release of the German IFO Business Climate data, while the New York session has the potential to drive significant movement. The CB Consumer Confidence data is set for release midway through the session, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is due to speak later in the day.

Australia will again be in the spotlight during the Asian session with the release of the latest CPI data. Given that this data comes just a day after the RBA decision, volatility could be high, especially if the figures differ from the bank’s recent stance. The London session is relatively quiet, but once New York opens, US New Home Sales and the latest US Oil Inventory numbers are likely to capture attention.

It’s a subdued Asian session with little of note on the calendar. However, the focus will shift to Switzerland early in the European day, as the Swiss National Bank makes its latest rate decision. There will be a significant data release shortly after the New York open, with Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, and Durable Goods numbers all scheduled simultaneously. However, these figures could be overshadowed by speeches from several central bank leaders, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde, and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, later in the day.

Friday once again has the potential to be the most volatile day of the week, with major US data releases on the agenda. Japan will come into focus early in the Asian trading day with the Tokyo CPI number due out, followed by Spanish CPI data during the London session. However, the highlight of the day will be the release of the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, once the New York session begins. Canadian GDP data is due at the same time, but it is expected that the US number will dominate market sentiment.

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