ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen swings again, more than a big figure range

• Deutsche Bank expect a line ball Bank of England rate cut this week, 5-4 vote in favour
• Oil markets awaiting the results of Venezuela’s presidential election
• Deutsche Bank expect 3 Fed rate cuts in 2024. BoA says just 1
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1316 (vs. estimate at 7.2522)
• Brent crude oil has jumped higher following attack in Middle East that killed 12 children
• National Australia Bank expect RBA on hold … until May 2025
• Australian regulator warns of (slowly) rising arrears on mortgage and business loans
• Australian CPI data due this week, a key critical input to next RBA interest rate deciison
• Bank of Japan “paradigm shift” ideas around inflation
• Morgan Stanley says this week’s FOMC statement will lay foundation for 3 cuts this year
• UBS says a Federal Reserve policy pivot is “on the horizon”
• China is considering increasing stock exchange fees on HFT by a massive factor of x10
• Weekend: Trump Bitcoin pump, “Will not sell govmt BTC, on day one will fire Gary Gensler”
• Bitcoin people getting milked for donations by US Senator
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 29 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Monday morning open levels, indicative FX rates 29 July – little changed from late Friday
• Timiraos: Fed cut unlikely on Wednesday but officials wary of waiting too long
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include FOMC, BoJ, NFP, BoE, ISM Mfg. PMI and OPEC+ JMMC
• Trump says to HODL as Bitcoin is going to the moon
• Weekly Market Outlook (29-02 August)
• A technical look at each of the major currency pairs heading into the new trading week

Oil
opened higher for the week after a weekend rocket attack on Golan
killed 12 people including children. Israel’s security cabinet
authorised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to decide
on the “manner and timing” of a response. Brent opened in
futures trade with a gap higher and has since not filled the gap.

Oil markets are now awaiting the results of the Venezuelan election.

News
flow otherwise was not notable. There was no data related to major FX
during the session.

USD/JPY
traded higher in the early part of Tokyo morning trade. Highs were
above 154.30 but demand dissipated after the fix. USD/JPY fell hard,
down to under 153.05, not quite hitting the figure. As I update its
back over 153.60. Yen crosses traded mainly a similar path. As a reminder, if you need, the Bank of Japan meeting is this week. The BoJ will be releasing plans for how it intends to reduce Japanese Government Bond buying. The market is also pricing in a better than even chance of a rate hike. The BoJ have made a habit of disappointing market expectations re hikes, so don’t bet the farm on this one.

The
EUR, GBP, NZD, CAD are all a few tics higher vs. the US dollar. Gold
is back around $2395. Bitcoin is higher. US Presidential candidate
Trump was at the Nashville Bitcoin conference. Trump is courting the
crypto vote and thus had many supportive comments to make. BTC/USD is
above $69,300.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.