Tesla plans to delay robotaxi event to October from August

Read full post at forexlive.com

Shares
of
Tesla
are
down
sharply
on
this
headline.
Shares
were
working
on
a
13(!)-day
winning
streak
earlier
today
but
this
should
be
the
end
of
that.

The
initial
event
was
scheduled
for
August
8
but
it
appears
as
though
the
robotaxi
won’t
be
ready.
I
think
one
of
things
driving
the
recent
rally
was
a
belief
that
FSD
was
solved
(or
that
someone
buying
it
knew
it
was).

Interestingly,
Morgan
Stanley
was
out
with
a
note
today
highlighting
that
they
still
hadn’t
received
an
invitation
to
the
August
event.

So
hot
rn.
It’s
true.
Tesla’s
stock
has
been
hot
lately.
But
during
my
run
(jog?)
this
morning
I
was
thinking
that
it’s
just
really
hot
outside…
right
now.
If
you
are
reading
this
somewhere
where
there
is
a
heat
wave
or
heat
advisory
alert
that
has
been
issued,
stop
and
think
for
a
moment
about
all
that
you
have
to
do
today.
Now
imagine
that
the
air
conditioning
went
out.
Whatever
you
thought
you
were
going
to
do,
you’re
probably
not
doing
it
anymore.
Then
think
about
all
the
people
in
Houston
that
lost
power
following
Beryl.
Imagine
what
it
must
feel
like
in
Delhi
(approx.
34
million
people)
when
temps
hit
126.1F
last
May.
It’s
little
wonder
why
the
leader
of
the
world’s
largest
democracy
travelled
to
Novo-Ogaryovo
this
past
Monday
to
give
someone
a
hug.
AI
may
be
very
important.
AC
is
more
important.
In
a
hot
world,
AC
>
AI.

Some
pithy
thoughts
on
Tesla
following
our
most
recent
bull-bear
lunch
on
Wednesday:

• 
  For
  the
  first
  time
  in
  memory,
  the
  majority
  of
  the
  more
  than
  20
  client
  lunch
  attendees
  believe
  the
  next
  $50
  move
  in
  the
  stock
  is
  higher
  rather
  than
  lower
  with
  a
  majority
  expecting
  the
  stock
  to
  outperform
  the
  market
  through
  year-end.
• At
  the
  same
  time,
  the
  vast
  majority
  of
  attendees
  said
  they
  did
  not
  own
  TSLA
  stock
  in
  their
  portfolios
  in
  any
  meaningful
  size.
• Just
  our
  opinion,
  but
  we
  think
  this
  dichotomy
  of
  a
  market
  that
  is
  prepared
  for
  the
  stock
  to
  go
  higher
  vs.
  having
  low
  or
  no
  exposure
  is
  related
  to
  an
  acceptance
  that
  the
  stock
  is
  being
  driven
  by
  momentum
  and
  other
  factors
  that
  cannot
  be
  measured
  with
  any
  acceptable
  accuracy.
  The
  struggling
  car
  business
  (90%
  of
  revenues)
  can
  be
  measured
  and
  ‘tracked.’
  The
  AI,
  robotics,
  FSD/robotaxi
  and
  much
  of
  the
  energy
  business
  is
  seen
  as
  too
  small
  to
  matter
  or
  does
  not
  produce
  the
  same
  quantum
  of
  weekly/monthly
  information
  to
  be
  tracked.
  This
  makes
  it
  difficult
  for
  some
  institutions
  to
  justify
  owning
  the
  stock
  in
  size.
• Here’s
  the
  other
  thing
  about
  yesterday’s
  lunch
  that
  I
  actually
  didn’t
  realize
  until
  one
  client
  brought
  it
  to
  my
  attention
  later
  that
  afternoon.
  The
  core
  auto
  business
  barely
  came
  up
  at
  all.
  For
  90
  minutes,
  we
  talked
  energy
  storage,
  megapacks,
  AI,
  FSD,
  China,
  geopolitics
  and
  the
  8/8
  ‘robotaxi
  day’
  
  (invitation
  still
  not
  received)
  and
  other
  topics.
  The
  topic
  of
  cars
  was
  almost
  completely
  absent
  from
  the
  discussion.

• Severe
  storms
  and
  unusual
  global
  weather
  phenomena
  (including
  heat
  waves)
  may
  be
  focusing
  investor
  attention
  on
  companies
  that
  may
  be
  well
  positioned
  to
  address
  climate
  and
  energy-related
  problems.
• Tesla
  has
  long
  been
  absent
  from
  the
  broader
  market
  discussion
  about
  AI
  for
  much
  of
  this
  year.
• Tesla
  is
  a
  car
  company.
  But,
  in
  our
  opinion,
  it
  is
  just
  now
  starting
  to
  get
  more
  institutional
  investor
  attention
  about
  its
  other
  capabilities
  including
  energy,
  manufacturing,
  AI
  and
  robotics.
  Cars
  are
  just
  one
  of
  many
  form
  factors
  of
  embodied
  AI/robotics.
• Part
  of
  our
  bull
  thesis
  is
  our
  belief
  that
  investors
  will
  continue
  to
  appreciate
  Tesla’s
  ability
  to
  collect
  monumental
  amounts
  of
  data
  that
  can
  be
  used
  to
  improve
  its
  AI
  and
  robotics
  capabilities.
  Over
  time,
  we
  expect
  there
  to
  be
  an
  entirely
  different
  industry
  classification
  of
  the
  company
  as
  it
  diversifies
  beyond
  an
  ‘auto
  pure
  play’
  over
  which
  time
  different
  types
  of
  analysts
  (ie
  not
  auto
  analysts)
  may
  be
  more
  dominant
  in
  covering
  the
  name.
  There
  is
  precedent
  here.

Lastly
on
Tesla’s
‘Megafactory’
in
Lathrop

• The
  Lathrop
  factory
  which
  has
  40GWh
  of
  capacity
  (10,000
  megapacks/year)
  can
  produce
  storage
  products
  that
  could
  generate
  profit
  equivalent
  to
  as
  many
  as
  1
  million
  Tesla
  vehicles.
• The
  Lathrop
  factory
  sits
  just
  outside
  of
  Stockton
  in
  the
  site
  of
  a
  former
  JC
  Penney
  distribution
  center.
  Check
  it
  out
  on
  Google
  Maps
  and
  you
  will
  see
  it’s
  right
  next
  to
  an
  Ashley
  Furniture
  warehouse
  and
  down
  the
  street
  from
  an
  In-N-Out
  Burger
  distribution
  center.
  It’s
  around
  4.36k
  square
  feet.
• See
  the
  relatively
  small
  size
  of
  the
  Lathrop
  factory.
  The
  Lathrop
  facility
  packages
  Tesla
  battery
  packs
  (shipped
  from
  Giga
  Nevada)
  into
  shipping
  container
  sized
  battery
  modules
  combined
  with
  bi-directional
  inverter,
  thermal
  management
  system,
  and
  AC
  main
  in
  a
  single
  electronic
  system.
  The
  Lathrop
  factory
  compares
  to
  the
  10
  million
  square
  foot
  Giga
  Texas
  vehicle
  factory
  in
  Austin.
• See
  our
  recent
  report
  where
  we
  increased
  the
  value
  of
  Tesla
  Energy
  to
  $50/share
  from
  $36
  previously
  while
  reducing
  the
  value
  of
  the
  core
  auto
  business
  to
  $380/share
  from
  $422/share.
• Investors
  have
  taken
  for
  granted
  that
  the
  US
  energy
  grid
  will
  be
  stable
  although
  generating
  power
  equivalent
  to
  EV
  sales.
  Given
  increasing
  demands
  from
  buildings
  and
  AI/datacenters,
  rising
  temperatures
  and
  stress
  to
  the
  grid,
  and
  given
  that
  fewer
  accidents
  we
  are
  increasingly
  worried
  about
  the
  stress
  on
  the
  grid
  and
  the
  need
  for
  adoption.
• US
  data
  center
  power
  usage
  may
  be
  equivalent
  to
  the
  power
  used
  by
  150
  million
  electric
  cars
  by
  2030.
  We
  estimate
  a
  typical
  EV
  has
  a
  distribution
  efficiency
  of
  approximately
  4
  miles/kWh
  by
  2030.
  MOST
  EVs
  can
  today
  achieve
  ranges
  of
  approximately
  3-4
  miles
  per
  kWh.
  Assuming
  a
  data
  center
  has
  a
  power
  usage
  effectiveness
  of
  approximately
  1.2
  (meaning
  a
  data
  center
  uses
  1.2kWh
  to
  deliver
  1.0kWh
  of
  power
  to
  its
  server
  racks)
  then
  500MW
  of
  data
  center
  power
  usage
  at
  90%
  efficiency
  means
  the
  effective
  range
  in
  TWh
  of
  power
  consumed
  by
  data
  centers
  by
  2030
  can
  be
  the
  equivalent
  of
  1.8
  million
  EVs
  in
  one
  year
  or
  5.0
  million
  miles
  driven
  (3-4
  miles/kWh
  times
  150
  million
  EVs)
  versus
  approximately
  1.0
  TWh
  today,
  or
  approximately
  3
  million
  miles.
  This
  implies
  an
  effective
  range
  of
  approximately
  3
  miles/kWh
  for
  a
  typical
  EV.

The
IBM
Global
Team
Tech
and
Global
Sustainability
team’s
forecast
of
FY27
data
center
power
usage
of
337
TWh
is
equivalent
to
the
usage
of
112mm
EVs.

…

Of
course
the
pullback
comes
right
after
the
bolded.

h/t

@SawyerMerritt