Natural Gas flirts with breakdown ahead of US CPI release

• 
  Natural
  Gas
  dips
  again
  on
  Thursday,
  testing
  vital
  support
  before
  a
  steep
  decline. 
• 
  Traders
  see
  demand
  in
  Europe
  soar
  again,
  while
  the
  June
  US
  CPI
  release
  holds
  a
  grip
  on
  US
  Gas
  prices. 
• 
  The
  US
  Dollar
  index
  eases
  and
  trades
  below
  105.00
  on
  concerns
  over
  President
  Biden
  staying
  in
  the
  race. 

Natural
Gas
price
(XNG/USD)
ticks
down
on
Thursday
for
the
third
day
in
a
row
this
week,
with
mounting
pressure
on
critical
support
that
stands
before
a
possible
steep
decline.
The
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
release
later
in
the
day
is
keeping
a
grip
on
the
US
Gas
prices,
where
a
further
disinflationary
print
could
mean
a
near
certainty
that
a
Federal
Reserve’s
(Fed)
interest
rate
cut
in
September
is
coming.
Lower
interest
rates
would
boost
demand,
with
a
positive

outlook
for
the
next
quarters
in
terms
of
demand
for
Natural
Gas. 

Meanwhile,
the
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY),
which
tracks
the
Greenback’s
value
against
six
major
currencies,
edges
lower
ahead
of
the
US

CPI
release,
while
important
public
figures
such
as
Nancy
Pelosi
and
Georges
Clooney
are
calling
for
President
Joe
Biden
to
make
way
for
a
better
candidate
on
the
presidential
ballot,
weighing
on
the
US
Dollar.
Markets
are
holding
their
breath
until
the
CPI
data
comes
out
at
12:30
GMT
because
it
is
vital.
Should
the
CPI
data
be
a
surprise
hotter-than-expected
inflation,
any
possibility
for
a
rate
cut
in
September
would
be
whipped
out,
with
markets
repricing
a
push
towards
either
December
or
even
only
at
the
start
of
2025
for
the

Fed
to
start
lowering
borrowing
costs. 

Natural
Gas
is
trading
at
$2.34
per
MMBtu
at
the
time
of
writing.  

Natural
Gas
news
and
market
movers:
CPI
footprint 

• Expect
  substantial
  market
  volatility
  on
  Thursday
  around
  12:30
  GMT,
  when
  the
  US
  Consumer
  Price
  Index
  numbers
  for
  June
  will
  be
  released,
  even
  in
  Gas
  prices.
• The
  Karsto
  plant
  in
  Norway
  faces
  maintenance
  until
  July
  13
  following
  another
  extension
  earlier,
  according
  to
  network
  operator
  Gassco
  AS,
  Bloomberg
  reports.
• Woodside
  Energy
  in
  Australia
  has
  signed
  a
  deal
  with
  Taiwan
  for
  LONG
  deliveries,
  Reuters
  reports.
• The
  gas
  premium
  spread
  in
  Europe
  is
  widening
  between
  the
  southern
  peripheral
  countries
  and
  mainland
  Europe.
  Elevated
  temperatures
  across
  Spain,
  Portugal,
  and
  Italy
  are
  triggering
  a
  short-term
  tightness
  with
  elevated
  demand
  over
  steady
  supply,
  Bloomberg
  reports.

Natural
Gas
Technical
Analysis:
CPI
catalyst
underway

Natural
Gas
price
stabilizes
near
the
crucial
support
area
at
$2.30
ahead
of
June’s
US
CPI
release.
It
becomes
clear
that
commodity
traders
seek
an
outside
catalyst
to
move
price
action
in
either
direction.
Should
the
CPI
release
be
binary,
expect
to
see
a
substantial
move
either
way
in
Gas
price
on
the
back
of
the
CPI
outcome
confirming
or
denying
a
September
rate
cut. 

The
200-day
SMA
is
the
first
force
to
reckon
with
on
the
upside,
near
$2.51,
closely
followed
by
the
55-day
SMA
at
$2.63.
Once
back
above,
the
pivotal
level
near
$3.08
(March
6,
2023,
high)
remains
key
resistance
after
its
false
break
last
week. 

On
the
downside,
the
support
level,
which
could
mean
some
buying
opportunities,
is
$2.30,
the
100-day
SMA
that
falls
in
line
with
the
ascending
trend
line
since
mid-February.
In
case
that
level
does
not
hold
as
support,
look
for
the
pivotal
level
near
$2.13,
which
has
acted
as
a
cap
and
floor
in
the
past. 

Natural
Gas:
Daily
Chart