Read full post at forexlive.com
In
a
report
released
late
yesterday,
CIBC
significantly
raised
its
gold
price
forecasts,
seeing
a
more
bullish
outlook
for
bullion,
especially
in
the
event
of
a
Trump
presidency.
Key
Takeaways:
Gold:
Silver:
Market
Drivers:
US
politics:
Silver
Market
Outlook:
Quotable:
If
we
marry
the
different
starting
positions
(fiscal,
monetary
and
valuation)
with
the
policies
articulated
by
Trump
(bigger
deficits,
higher
tariffs,
less
Fed
independence),
it
is
easy
to
see
a
better
environment
for
gold
prices
if
Trump
repeats
in
2024
–
albeit
Biden
does
not
seem
much
more
restrictive
on
deficits
and
tariffs.
Given
neither
candidate
seems
concerned
on
fiscal
positions
coupled
with
a
Federal
Reserve
(and
to
some
extent
all
central
banks)
seemingly
more
comfortable
with
higher
structural
inflation,
we
believe
a
Biden
second
term
shouldn’t
be
a
negative
for
gold
prices;
but
if
Trump
is
re-elected
(and
follows
through
on
his
policy
positions),
the
already
impressive
rally
in
gold
prices
likely
continues
into
2025.
Note
that
gold
didn’t
do
well
in
the
first
Trump
Presidency
but
CIBC
notes
that
the
fiscal
situation
is
vastly
different
now
with
a
deficit
almost
four
times
as
large
as
it
was
in
2016
and
interest
payments
eating
up
15%
of
revenues
compared
to
6%
in
2016
(and
on
the
way
to
22%
in
2033).
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