Australian Dollar mildly down ahead of US inflation data


content provided with permission by FXStreet


  • Despite
    minimal
    losses,
    the
    AUD/USD
    remains
    at
    its
    highest
    level
    since
    January,
    just
    below
    0.6740.

  • RBA’s
    hawkish
    interest
    rate
    stance
    supports
    the
    Aussie.

  • Week’s
    highlight
    will
    be
    inflation
    figures
    from
    the
    US
    on
    Thursday.

The
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
saw
some
losses
on
Monday
against
the
USD,
which
still
remains
weak
after
last
week’s
data,
which
fueled
dovish
expectations
for
the

Federal
Reserve

(Fed).
With
the
pair
maintaining
its
highest
level
since
early
January,
the
upside
for
the
Aussie
is
limited
by
strong
data
reported
last
week
along
with
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia’s
(RBA)
hawkish
stance.

The

RBA

appears
set
to
be
one
of
the
final
G10
countries’
central
banks
to
initiate
cuts,
which
should
continue
to
support
AUD
as
it
might
benefit
from
monetary
policy
divergences.

Daily
digest
market
movers:
AUD
benefited
by
monetary
policy
divergences,
eyes
on
US
CPI

  • US
    CPI
    will
    be
    reported
    on
    Thursday.
    The
    headline
    is
    expected
    to
    decrease
    slightly
    to
    3.1%
    YoY,
    while
    the
    core
    is
    predicted
    to
    remain
    steady
    at
    3.4%
    YoY.
  • Potential
    easing
    by
    the
    Fed,
    juxtaposed
    with
    the
    likely
    extended
    restrictive
    stance
    of
    the
    RBA,
    could
    bolster
    the
    AUD/USD
    in
    coming
    months.
  • Still,
    concerns
    about
    slow
    momentum
    of
    Chinese
    economy
    may
    hinder
    a
    sustained
    recovery
    of
    the
    Australian
    currency.
  • This
    week
    doesn’t
    offer
    any
    major
    events
    on
    Australia’s
    calendar,
    and
    the
    AUD
    is
    forecast
    to
    hold
    its
    gains
    against
    its
    competitors
    as
    long
    as
    the
    RBA
    maintains
    its
    hawkish
    stance.
  • On
    the
    Fed’s
    side,
    there’s
    a
    70%
    chance
    of
    a
    September
    rate
    cut,
    contingent
    on
    future
    data
    with
    markets
    seriously
    betting
    on
    a
    hike
    this
    year
    by
    the
    RBA.

Technical
analysis:
AUD/USD
concedes
some
ground,
further
correction
possible

The

AUD/USD

lost
ground
on
Monday,
but
the
overall
outlook
is
positive,
backed
by
deep
positive
territories
on
the
technical

indicators

Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
Moving
Average
Convergence
Divergence
(MACD).
With
the
pair
securing
a
four-day
winning
streak
and
reaching
its
highs
since
January,
the
bulls
confirmed
a
bullish
outlook
last
week.

Nevertheless,
traders
should
pay
attention
to
possible
overbought
conditions,
suggesting
a
slight
correction
might
be
imminent.The
next
bullish
targets
are
at
0.6750
and
0.6780,
while
support
levels
to
monitor
are
at
0.6670,
0.6650
and
0.6630.

Central
banks
FAQs

Central
Banks
have
a
key
mandate
which
is
making
sure
that
there
is
price
stability
in
a
country
or
region.
Economies
are
constantly
facing
inflation
or
deflation
when
prices
for
certain
goods
and
services
are
fluctuating.
Constant
rising
prices
for
the
same
goods
means
inflation,
constant
lowered
prices
for
the
same
goods
means
deflation.
It
is
the
task
of
the
central
bank
to
keep
the
demand
in
line
by
tweaking
its
policy
rate.
For
the
biggest
central
banks
like
the
US
Federal
Reserve
(Fed),
the
European
Central
Bank
(ECB)
or
the
Bank
of
England
(BoE),
the
mandate
is
to
keep
inflation
close
to
2%.

A
central
bank
has
one
important
tool
at
its
disposal
to
get
inflation
higher
or
lower,
and
that
is
by
tweaking
its
benchmark
policy
rate,
commonly
known
as
interest
rate.
On
pre-communicated
moments,
the
central
bank
will
issue
a
statement
with
its
policy
rate
and
provide
additional
reasoning
on
why
it
is
either
remaining
or
changing
(cutting
or
hiking)
it.
Local
banks
will
adjust
their
savings
and
lending
rates
accordingly,
which
in
turn
will
make
it
either
harder
or
easier
for
people
to
earn
on
their
savings
or
for
companies
to
take
out
loans
and
make
investments
in
their
businesses.
When
the
central
bank
hikes
interest
rates
substantially,
this
is
called
monetary
tightening.
When
it
is
cutting
its
benchmark
rate,
it
is
called
monetary
easing.

A
central
bank
is
often
politically
independent.
Members
of
the
central
bank
policy
board
are
passing
through
a
series
of
panels
and
hearings
before
being
appointed
to
a
policy
board
seat.
Each
member
in
that
board
often
has
a
certain
conviction
on
how
the
central
bank
should
control
inflation
and
the
subsequent
monetary
policy.
Members
that
want
a
very
loose
monetary
policy,
with
low
rates
and
cheap
lending,
to
boost
the
economy
substantially
while
being
content
to
see
inflation
slightly
above
2%,
are
called
‘doves’.
Members
that
rather
want
to
see
higher
rates
to
reward
savings
and
want
to
keep
a
lit
on
inflation
at
all
time
are
called
‘hawks’
and
will
not
rest
until
inflation
is
at
or
just
below
2%.

Normally,
there
is
a
chairman
or
president
who
leads
each
meeting,
needs
to
create
a
consensus
between
the
hawks
or
doves
and
has
his
or
her
final
say
when
it
would
come
down
to
a
vote
split
to
avoid
a
50-50
tie
on
whether
the
current
policy
should
be
adjusted.
The
chairman
will
deliver
speeches
which
often
can
be
followed
live,
where
the
current
monetary
stance
and
outlook
is
being
communicated.
A
central
bank
will
try
to
push
forward
its
monetary
policy
without
triggering
violent
swings
in
rates,
equities,
or
its
currency.
All
members
of
the
central
bank
will
channel
their
stance
toward
the
markets
in
advance
of
a
policy
meeting
event.
A
few
days
before
a
policy
meeting
takes
place
until
the
new
policy
has
been
communicated,
members
are
forbidden
to
talk
publicly.
This
is
called
the
blackout
period.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *