EUR/USD advances as US Dollar slips amid firm Fed rate cut bets for September
- EUR/USD rises to 1.0790 as the US Dollar edges down due to weak US data.
- ECB Stournaras sees the central bank reducing interest rates three times this year.
- Weak US labor market data and poor ISM Services PMI darkens the US economic outlook.
EUR/USD moves higher to 1.0790 in Monday’s early New York session. The major currency pair posts gains as the US Dollar comes under pressure due to firm speculation that the Federal eserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting. The action in the EUR/USD pair will come from the side of the US Dollar as the Eurozone economic calendar lacks tier-1 data this week. The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to shift to policy normalization in the June meeting. Therefore, speculation about ECB’s stance on interest rates for the second-half of the year will influence the Euro’s move.
ECB policymakers are divided over extending the interest rate-cut cycle after the June meeting. A few policymakers believe that extending rate cuts from the July meeting could revamp price pressures. For the entire year, ECB policymaker and Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras said in an interview with a Greek media outlet that he sees three rate cuts this year. He sees a rate cut in July as possible and added that the Eurozone’s economic rebound in the first quarter of the year made three cuts more likely than four. The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in the January-March period, beating expectations of 0.1% gain.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD capitalizes on soft US Dollar
- EUR/USD exhibits strength as the US Dollar falls in the aftermath of the United States labor market and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for April released on Friday. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that fresh labor additions were significantly lower than the consensus and wage growth softened on a monthly and an annual basis.
- Easing labor market conditions weighed on the US Dollar Index (DXY), which fell to an almost four-week low of 104.60. However, the USD index recovered quickly as the ISM Services PMI showed that businesses pay higher prices for inputs.
- The ISM Services Prices Paid rose to 59.4 in April from 53.4, which suggested a stubborn inflation outlook. The inputs in the service sector are mainly the salaries paid to employees, which often leads to higher consumer spending and eventually prompts price pressures. Though the ISM Services PMI, which represents the service sector that accounts for two-thirds of the economy, falls below the 50.0 threshold to 49.4, the lowest reading since December 2022.
- Easing labor market conditions and weak ISM Service PMI have raised concerns over the US economic outlook. These have strengthened speculation for the Fed reducing interest rates in the September meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders see a 70% chance that interest rates will be lower than actual levels in September.
- Contrary to market expectations, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday she would be willing to raise interest rates further if progress in declining inflation to 2% stalls or reverses Reuters reported. However, she is confident that inflation will decline even if interest rates remain where they are.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD marches toward 1.0800
EUR/USD extends its winning spell for the fourth trading session on Monday but is trading inside Friday’s trading range, exhibiting a sideways performance. The near-term appeal of the shared currency pair is upbeat as it is trading above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0730.
Broadly, EUR/USD exhibits a sharp volatility contraction due to a Symmetrical Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. The upward-sloping border of the triangle pattern is plotted from October 3 low at 1.0448 and the downward-sloping border is placed from December 28 high around 1.1140.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.