NFP December 2018 ~ USDJPY
NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) Analysis.
- Previous value: 216K
- Consensus: 200K
- more details @ myfxbook.com
it’s 17:30 SGT (Singaporean Time)
-
- first, we need to find the “movers” by picking the item with the largest differences in Currency Strenght.
- they are very easy to spot on the chart below
- top selected Candidates: Japanese Yen and British Pound
- resulting in USDJPY and GBPUSD as target Pairs.
I will use the Japanese Yen. the Symbol that trades against the US Dollars is USDJPY
Japanese Yen is going down in Strenght, we do expect a counter move to normalize this, so USDJPY will go Down during NFP, as if the Japanese Yen goes up but traded against the USDollar means the Forex Pair USDJPY will go down (simple Stuff)
Possible Targets:
-
- D1 TL
-
- Divergences 17:00 SGT
-
- H1 TL
- First channel Support 113.082
- Pivot 112.822
- Lover Channel Bottom 112.605
- Lower channel top 112.165
- Hourly Long-term Trendline 111.504
- Minor TL 110.459
- Hourly channel bottom (older) 109.767
- Daily CHart bottom 107.9 (VERY unlikely) but it’s on the list so it can be considered Complete)
I personally would target only the Pivot and the channel top or bottom (whichever comes first) in the 112.5 area
please also note that these prices are based on Trendlines, and depending on how much time passed the numbers may be not correct, you need to put the lines there your self in order to find the place to exit.
also if the news Result will be Against this move, the targets are far less likely to be reached,
as the data above is only about the initial movements. if the initial move and the divergence are in the same direction .. things can move very quickly then.
the Prediction was correct, fall a total of 39 pips (where 34 where tradeable (as you can never pick tops and bottoms)
but the price did not even reach the first resistance line so the prediction may correct, but the trade where most likely not successful (exit at Breakeven)