What are the interest rates expectations for G8FX?

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 81 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 76 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 75 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 40 bps (58% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 118 bps (76% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 77 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 25 bps (74% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

* for the RBA, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 10 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Since Friday’s update, we can see that traders are getting less aggressive on rate cuts as the stock markets continue to recover and hopes for de-escalation keep on increasing.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.