Little progress on trade negotiations keeps the market betting on more aggressive easing

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 90 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 66 bps (74% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 87 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 46 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 127 bps (78% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 84 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 28 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

* for the RBA, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 14 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

We can see that since the last update, the markets increased the pricing for more easing given the lack of positive news on the trade negotiations front.

That’s what the market has been focused on for weeks, and it will continue to do so. The first trade deal will be an important catalyst.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.