ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Asia markets mixed, RBA hints at May rate cut

• Ex BOJ official says Bank to hold, not hike: “will be in a wait-and-see mode for a while”
• Goldman Sachs are wary of 500K of US job losses due to tariffs
• UBS has cut its China GDP growth forecast to 3.4% for 2025
• Survey of firms shows efforts to revive U.S. manufacturing through tariffs may backfire
• RBA minutes: May meeting an opportune time to consider reacting to potential risks
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.2096 (vs. estimate at 7.3094)
• Senior BOJ official cites Trump tariffs as a cause of volatile market moves
• Chinese police put 3 U.S. operatives on wanted list over cyberattacks
• Bank of Korea seen holding rates this week, but cuts expected soon
• Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. slashed their estimates for 2025 earnings
• Investing Education: Recession, and What to Watch
• Fed’s Bostic – inflation still much higher than target
• Japan finance minister Kato says negative impacts of excessive FX volatility
• ICYMI – Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December
• UK consumer spending resilient in March despite tariff fears and rising business concerns
• New Zealand March food prices +0.5% m/m (prior -0.5%)
• Recap – Bessent said will begin interviewing for Fed Chair in fall
• RBNZ Conway: Hopefully what Trump put out on tariffs before pause is worst case scenario
• Fed’s Harker speech – no remarks on his economic or monetary policy outlook
• ICYMI – OPEC slashed its global oil demand growth forecast, citing tariffs
• RBNZ chief economist Conway says balance of risks has shifted to the downside
• ICYMI – Goldman CEO Solomon says prospect of a US recession ‘has increased’
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 14 Apr: Markets quiet after last weeks fireworks
• US Treas Sec Bessent speaking – some truth in his comments, some lies
• The US has begun its investigation ahead of pharmaceutical tariffs
• Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 15 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Asian markets traded cautiously on Tuesday as investors weighed fresh signs of stress from global trade tensions and growing expectations of policy easing in Australia.

Comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic added to the uncertainty. While Bostic noted the U.S. economy is in a “pause” and flagged investment hesitancy, he also reiterated that inflation remains elevated and the labour market is still tight—casting doubt on the near-term case for Fed rate cuts.

Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed concerns over foreign dumping of U.S. bonds but said Washington has tools ready, including potential buybacks of off-the-run securities, to help stabilise markets if needed. His remarks came amid broader concerns about debt market volatility and the legacy of prior issuance strategies (Bessent lambasted Yellen for using similar tools!).

In China, authorities in Harbin publicly accused U.S. intelligence agents of cyberattacks targeting infrastructure linked to the Asian Winter Games in February. Beijing alleged the NSA conducted a wide range of intrusions across sectors including energy and telecommunications, further straining already tense U.S.-China relations. No love lost between China and the US right now, is there?

On the policy front, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s April meeting revealed a shift toward likely further easing, setting the stage for a rate cut at the May gathering. Policymakers highlighted growing global risks—particularly from U.S. tariffs—and emphasised the importance of not undermining progress on inflation by acting too soon.

Major FX traded mixed in not large ranges. EUR/USD lost ground but as I update its little net changed. USD/JPY ticked a little higher but also retraced much of its move. AUD, NZD and GBP all added a few tics.

Gold rose.

EUR/USD update:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.