Trump win in North Carolina hints that other exit polls could include shy Trump supporters

The Decision Desk HQ model has called the state for Trump. Moreover, they have the projected margin at 51.2% vs 47.8%.

What’s notable about this result is that it expands on Trump’s win in the state compared to 2020, when he won by 1 point.

That runs against the exit poll data from Edison that mostly showed Democrats doing better than 2020. The takeaway here is that other exit polls are likely to have made the same mistake, which is likely due to shy Trump supporters, similar to prior elections:

• Trump wins 61% of white voters in North Carolina; Harris wins 38%.
  Trump’s share is down 5 percentage points from a 2020 exit poll.
• Harris wins 87% of Black voters in North Carolina; Trump wins 12%.
  Trump’s share is up 5 percentage points from a 2020 exit poll.
• Trump wins 65% of white men voters in North Carolina; Harris wins 33%.
  Trump’s share is down 4 percentage points from a 2020 exit poll.
• Harris wins 43% of white women voters in North Carolina; Trump wins
  56%. Trump’s share is down 8 percentage points from a 2020 exit poll.
• Trump wins 48% of voters age 18-29 in North Carolina; Harris wins 51%.
  Trump’s share is up 8 percentage points from a 2020 exit poll.
• Harris wins 48% of voters age 65+ in North Carolina; Trump wins 52%.
  Trump’s share is down 7 percentage points from a 2020 exit poll.
• Trump wins 52% of voters age 45+ in North Carolina; Harris wins 47%.
  Trump’s share is down 3 percentage points from a 2020 exit poll.
• Harris wins 53% of voters under age 45 in North Carolina; Trump wins
  45%. Trump’s share is up 3 percentage points from a 2020 exit poll.
• Trump wins 56% of voters without a college degree in North Carolina;
  Harris wins 43%. Trump’s share is up 1 percentage point from a 2020 exit
  poll.

Exit polls look pretty good for Harris in Pennsylvania but this shows they could be way off, and the market is going in that direction too as the US dollar continues to rally.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.