ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Waiting on the NFP

• FX option expiries for 01 November 2024 at the 10am New York cut
• Stock market based model shows a nearly 70% chance of who will win the US election
• Heads up for US and Canada clocks changing this weekend – goodbye daylight saving
• Dallas Fed’s Logan is speaking on Friday – won’t mention the economy or monetary policy
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October 50.3 (expected 49.7, prior 49.3)
• Senior IMF official warns of tit-for-tat tariffs, China property sector, yen intervention
• Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: expects BOJ to work closely with government
• Its unanimous, Reserve Bank of Australia to hold cash rate at 4.35% at next week’s meeting
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1135 (vs. estimate at 7.1122)
• Australian housing finance data (September 2024) comes in at a miss
• Australian Q3 PPI +0.9% q/q (expected +0.7%)
• Japan final manufacturing PMIs (October 2024 ): 49.2 (prior 49.7)
• US non-farm payrolls data – the critical key ranges for estimates to watch
• Here’s another forecaster moving back expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes to 2025
• Asian FX & rates could be especially sensitive to the US election result
• Bank of Japan to hike rates in January despite (because of?) politics
• The RBA meeting next week marks a year of unchanged cash rate at 4.35% – no cut until 2025
• Australian manufacturing PMI for October 2024 (final) 47.3 (prior 46.7)
• ICYMI Goldman Sachs changed their forecast for Bank of England rate cuts. None in December
• New Zealand Building Permits for September 2024: +2.6% m/m (prior -5.3% )
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda dropped a hint on what he sees as the main block to rate hikes
• Stocks to continue higher through 2025. AI, Fed cuts, and strong economy underpin.
• Apple earnings: Adjusted EPS of $1.64 vs $1.60 estimate
• Trade ideas thread – Friday, 1 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• October monthly changes: US stocks end the five-month winning streak
• Amazon reports big beat on earnings and revenue
• US stock markets beaten up, close on the lows. More earnings to come

USD/JPY
dipped to lows circa 151.80 in the Tokyo morning before recovering to
nudge above 152.40. News and data flow from Japan was light, with the
manufacturing PMI (final for October) dipping further into
contraction while chief cabinet secretary Hayashi said the BOJ will
set monetary policy … while working closely with the government. It seems like the BoJ will behave itself and do what the politicians tell it to do?

Elsewhere
we had lower-tier data from New Zealand and Australia. AUD and NZD
were bound within small ranges. EUR, GBP, CAD; all pretty much the
same.

China
was a touch more interesting, with the country’s second
manufacturing PMI for October published today. The Caixin/S&P
Global manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, beating the central
estimate of 49.7 and ahead of the September 49.3 result. This second
PMI has a greater representation of smaller and export-oriented firms
than does the official, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
manufacturing PMI. As I update Chinese equities are positive on the
session.

The
focus ahead is the US non-farm payrolls data due at 8.30 am US
Eastern time. The results could well be distorted by impacts from
hurricanes and strikes. There are previews in the points above,
including the ‘ranges’ of estimates to be aware of.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.