Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Nov: BTC stalls just short of 100K.EURUSD new ’24 low.

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November 22, 2024 04:30

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Markets:

Gold up $19.76 or 0.75% at $2669.75
US 10-year yield 4.42%, up 1.6 bps
US 2-year yield 4.344%, up 3.6 bps
WTI crude oil up $1.44 or 2.09% at $70.19
S&P 500 rose 31.59 points ro 0.53% at $5948.70
NASDAQ rose 6.28 points or 0.03% at 18972.42
Russell 2000 rose 38.49 points or 1.65% at 2364.01
Dow rose 461.88 points or 1.06% at 43870.35
European shares moved higher. The Dax and Italy’s FTSE MIB snapped 4 day losing streaks.

The US dollar was mixed in trading today with a bias to the upside. The USD fell vs the JPY, CAD and AUD.

EUR, +0.61%
JPY -0.59%
GBP, +0.41%
CHF +0.28%
CAD -0.03%
AUD -0.15%
NZD +0.19%
DXY +0.32%

Fundamentally, existing home sales increased by 3.4% to an annualized sales pace of 3.96M

Key takeaways from the existing home sales

Existing-home sales increased by 3.4% in October to 3.96 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate).
Sales rose 2.9% compared to October 2023, the first year-over-year gain since July 2021.
Median existing-home sales price grew 4.0% year-over-year to $407,200.
This marks the 16th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
Unsold existing homes inventory rose 0.7% to 1.37 million.
Inventory represents 4.2 months’ supply at the current sales pace.

The rise comes despite mortgage rates moving higher. The current 30-year mortgage rate is at 6.84% up from 6.00% at lows from September.

US initial jobless claims came in less than expectations at 213K vs 220K estimate. However, continuing claims were higher than expectations and above last week’s levels. Continuing claims came in at 1.908M vs 1.873M est and 1.872M last week. Jobs market still remains strong/solid.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing was mixed with the current business index moving to negative at -5.5 vs 8.0 estimate and 10.3 last month. However, the 6-month index jumped to 56.60 from 36.70 last month. That took that measure to the highest level since the post-covid recovery.

Canada producer price data was higher after a few months of declines. That did give CAD buyers a reason to further correct the USDCAD lower. However, the fall was short lived and that pair is closing near unchanged.

Fed’s Goolsbee spoke today. The Chicago Fed President suggested that it may be prudent for the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate cuts as they approach the level where rates will stabilize. He expects rates to be significantly lower within the next year and noted that inflation is trending toward the 2% target, with the labor market near stable full employment. Goolsbee emphasized the importance of forward-looking data, such as inflation expectations, while refraining from speculating on the effects of unimplemented policies. He also highlighted that the neutral rate remains far below current levels.

ECBs Holzmann was less dovish stating that concerns about inflation undershooting the 2% target are unwarranted. He emphasized the need to maintain restrictive monetary policy in light of ongoing price risks. Holzmann noted that while a rate cut in December is the most likely outcome, it is not guaranteed.

Yields moved higher today for the 2nd consecutive day. The 2 year yield is skimming the corrective high from last week at 4.353%.

2-year yield 4.347%, +3.9 basis points
5-year yield 4.299%, +2.7 basis points
10-year yield 4.423%, +1.6 basis points
30-year yield 4.609%, +1.7 basis points
2-10 year spread is down -2.0 bps at 7.5 bps
2-30 year spread is also down -2.0 bps at 26 bps

Bitcoin reached another record level with the price pushing BITCOIN 100K. The high price today reached $99,121 but backed off and trades at $98,182.

Technically speaking:

EURUSD: The EURUSD moved to a new 2024 low taking out the low from last week at 1.04956. The 2023 low price from remains the next target at 1.0448. Move below that and the 50% of the move up from the 2022 low to the 2023 high comes in at 1.0405. A bounce higher could see more upside momentum on a move above the high of a swing area at 1.05316. Get and stay above that and the 100 hour MA at 1.0555 (and moving lower would be targeted.

USDJPY: The USDJPY moved lower in the early Asian session and bounced off the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 153.88 currently. The price bounced up toward the falling 100 hour MA at 154.72 and the 200 hour MA at 154.89. A move above those levels would tilt the bias more to the upside once again as the ups-and-down for the week continue into the last day of the week. Stay below the hourly MAs, and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart will be eyed as key support.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved to the lowest level since May with a break of the low from last week at 1.2596. The low reached 1.2575 and bounced back to the 1.2596 low from last week. Buyers and sellers are battling around that level. IN the new day, watch a move above 1.26137. If there is momentum, it could tilt the sellers to buyers with the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2649 as the target. That MA did a good job of stalling the rallies today. in the Asian and US morning session.

AUDUSD: For the AUDUSD the last three trading days had found support near the pairs 100 hour MA. That rising moving average currently comes in and 0.6501 which is just below the 200 hour moving average at 0.6504. That area will be a key barometer for the pair today and going forward. Stay above and more upside probing can be expected. Move below and the bias shifts more to the downside technically.

Thank you for your support. Good fortune with your trading.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Nov: BTC stalls just short of 100K.EURUSD new ’24 low.

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