What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE report?

Why it’s
important?

The ranges
of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual
data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another
important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact,
although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on
the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of
estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise
effect.

Distribution
of forecasts for PCE

PCE Y/Y

• 2.2%
  (9%)
• 2.1%
  (66%) – consensus
• 2.0%
  (25%)

PCE M/M

• 0.2%
  (85%) – consensus
• 0.1%
  (15%)

Core PCE Y/Y

• 2.7%
  (19%)
• 2.6%
  (81%) – consensus

Core PCE M/M

• 0.3%
  (71%) – consensus
• 0.2%
  (29%)

Overall, I don’t think that the data this week matters that much as we have the US elections on Tuesday, but it could still move the market and add some more info to the bigger picture.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.