Read full post at forexlive.com
Deutsche Bank has released a matrix of potential market reactions to various US election scenarios, while admitting that its own team is divided and the reactions are highly uncertain.
“We see the most bullish dollar outcome
as a red sweep and the most bearish dollar outcome on a blue sweep, but the
magnitude of the moves is likely larger in the former,” the report says. “We see short EUR/CAD and
long MXN/ZAR as the two most asymmetric trades in FX heading in to the
election.”
They examine four scenarios focused on Presidential winners with or without Congressional control:
The big questions are around the size and impact of tariffs as well as countervailing duties but there is also uncertainty around deficits, though a strong sense that any sort of mixed Congress would mean lower deficits than any kind of sweep.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Leave a Reply