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The IMF said the inflation battle ‘has largely been won,’ on track to return to 2% target in 2025 in advanced economies. The downside risks include too-tight monetary policy, spiking commodity prices due to escalation of wars and a further correction in Chinese property market.
They highlight adverse scenario including 10% tariffs between US, China, and Eurozone, tighter financial conditions could reduce global output by 0.8% by 2024, 1.3% by 2026 vs base forecasts.
As for the forecasts, they highlight that Germany is struggling and the US is doing remarkably well. But if you strip out the US, there is a lot of disappointment here. But so long as the US can hold up, the US dollar can outperform.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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