Goldman Sachs says oil to average $76/bbl in 2025, sees two-sided risks

Key Points:

• Forecasts $76/bbl average for 2025 on moderate surplus
• Maintains $70-85/bbl range view
• Risks skewed to downside due to high spare capacity, potential trade tariffs
• Brent spreads may be underpricing near-term physical tightness

Geopolitical factors:

• Limited risk premium despite Israel-Iran tensions
• High OPEC+ spare capacity providing buffer
• Iran oil production remains undisrupted
• Mid East conflict keeps supply risks in play

Bottom line: While Goldman sees downside risks dominating, they note 2025 supply glut isn’t guaranteed and year-end could see some upward price pressure.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.