Canada September employment change +46.7K vs +27.0K expected

• Prior month +22.1K
• Unemployment rate 6.5% vs 6.7% expected
• Prior month employment rate 6.6%
• Full-time employment +112.0K vs -43.6K prior (largest since May 2022)
• Part-time employment -65.3K vs +65.7K prior
• Participation rate 64.9% vs 65.1% prior
• Average hourly wages y/y 4.5% vs 4.9% last month
• Private sector employment +61K
• Public sector employment -24K

Ahead of the data, the market was pricing in 53% chance that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 bps on October 23. That has risen considerably this week and helped to fuel a big rally in USD/CAD.

Immediately after the data, USD/CAD has fallen 45 pips and the market is re-thinking the BOC decision. The softer participation rate does take some of the shine off the drop in unemployment. The employment-to-population rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 60.7%.

Employment rose among youth aged 15 to 24 (+33,000; +1.2%)
and core-aged women (25 to 54 years old) (+21,000; +0.3%). The largest segment rise was in culture and recreation industry, which rose by 22,000 jobs matching the rise in wholesale and retail trade.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.