The likely scenario is that the Fed navigates with a soft landing
COnsumer is still healthy especially in the service sector.
I found the CEO sect at consumer seminar is quite positive on the economy
See 2 maybe 3 cuts into the fall
My view has always been very data dependent.
The consensus is in the soft landing camp
There is a case to be made for 50 basis points based on softer labor market
My expectation is for 25 basis point cut.
We have made real progress on inflation
There is a risk of slow growth on inflation but not his base case scenario.
Going to see material improvement and investment banking activity. A bigger Improvement in capital markets activity and less improvement in M&A. Recovery has been a little slower in the recovery.
I don’t think unwinding the credit card business has proven to be messier then we thought, and going to see that there is a material improvement in investment banking activity.
Nvidia’s Jenson’optimism on the pace of innovation is quite optimistic and compelling.
Nvidia is a super company, but don’t call “balls and strikes” on the valuation of the company.
The report on policy issues from Trump and Harris and projected its impact on growth impact. THe impact was only 0.2%.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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