The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Monday on the softer US Dollar (USD). The foreign inflows by the inclusion of India’s bonds into the JPMorgan emerging market debt index are expected to trigger billions of dollars into the world’s fifth-largest economy, boosting the INR. Furthermore, the softer US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May, which has its lowest annual rate in more than three years, weighs on the Greenback and acts as a headwind against the pair.
Meanwhile, further gains in crude oil prices might exert some selling pressure on the pair, as India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer after the United States (US) and China. On Monday, investors will focus on India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI, which is estimated to improve from 57.5 to 58.5. Any signs of India’s weakness could exert some selling pressure on the Indian Rupee. On the US docket, ISM Manufacturing for June will be published.
The Indian Rupee trades with mild gains on the day. The bullish outlook of the USD/INR pair remains intact on the daily timeframe as the pair holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, USD/INR could resume its downside journey if the pair crosses below the 100-day EMA. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the 50-midline, indicating that further downside or consolidation cannot be ruled out.
Extended gains above 83.65, a high of June 26, will see a rally to the all-time high of 83.75. Any follow-through buying above this level will pave the way to the 84.00 psychological level.
On the other hand, the key support level for the pair is seen at the 83.30-83.35 region, the 100-day EMA. The additional downside level will expose the 83.00 round figure.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies in the last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | -0.61% | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.51% | 0.75% | 0.20% | 0.59% | |
EUR | 0.59% | 0.45% | 0.41% | 0.12% | 1.32% | 0.80% | 1.18% | |
GBP | 0.15% | -0.45% | -0.04% | -0.34% | 0.88% | 0.34% | 0.73% | |
CAD | 0.18% | -0.42% | 0.04% | -0.31% | 0.92% | 0.38% | 0.77% | |
AUD | 0.51% | -0.11% | 0.35% | 0.29% | 1.23% | 0.69% | 1.10% | |
JPY | -0.75% | -1.35% | -0.90% | -0.91% | -1.23% | -0.53% | -0.13% | |
NZD | -0.18% | -0.80% | -0.34% | -0.38% | -0.70% | 0.53% | 0.39% | |
CHF | -0.58% | -1.20% | -0.74% | -0.78% | -1.09% | 0.16% | -0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).