US Dollar under pressure as markets gain confidence of a sooner cut in September


content provided with permission by FXStreet


  • US
    Dollar
    loses
    momentum
    on
    decelerating
    CPI
    figures.

  • Market
    now
    more
    certain
    of
    September
    cut.

  • US
    Treasury
    yields
    fall,
    making
    traders
    lose
    interest
    in
    USD.

The
US
Dollar
has
extended
its
losses
and
the
DXY
index
slips
further
on
Thursday,
mainly
due
to
the
decelerating
inflation
figures
from
the
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI),
which
makes
an
even
better
case
for
a
September
interest
rate
cut
by
the

Federal
Reserve

(Fed).

Though
markets
are
getting
increasingly
confident
about
the
rate
cut,
Fed
officials
remain
cautious
and
have
indicated
that
they
are
not
in
a
hurry
to
implement
changes
without
studying
data-driven

indicators

thoroughly.

Daily
digest
market
movers:
DXY
under
stress
as
inflation
softens
and
markets
expect
a
rate
cut

  • Keeping
    with
    his
    earlier
    stance,
    Fed
    Chair
    Powell
    reiterated
    that
    the
    Fed’s
    job
    is
    not
    yet
    done
    when
    it
    comes
    to
    managing
    inflation
    and
    even
    suggested
    the
    Fed
    has
    more
    work
    to
    do.
  • He
    indicated
    that
    the
    confidence
    to
    lower
    rates
    based
    solely
    on
    inflation
    is
    not
    sufficient
    yet,
    but
    also
    pointed
    out
    that
    the
    Fed
    doesn’t
    need
    inflation
    to
    be
    under
    2%
    before
    rate
    cuts
    begin.
  • On
    the
    data
    front,
    the
    US
    Consumer
    Price
    Index
    (CPI)
    for
    June
    reported
    a
    decline
    to
    3%
    YoY
    from
    3.3%
    in
    May
    as
    per
    the
    US
    Bureau
    of
    Labor
    Statistics
    (BLS),
    below
    the
    market’s
    expectations.
    The
    core
    measure
    rose
    by
    3.3%
    YoY,
    lower
    than
    the
    3.4%
    expected.
  • Amid
    continued
    signs
    of
    inflation
    softening,
    market
    participants’
    confidence
    in
    a
    potential
    rate
    cut
    in
    September
    strengthens,
    placing
    downward
    pressure
    on
    USD.

DXY
technical
outlook:
Negative
outlook
intensifies
as
DXY
loses
100-day
SMA

The
DXY
index
losing
its
10-day
Simple
Moving
Average
(SMA)
has
stirred
up
a
negative

outlook

for
the
USD
with
both
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
the
Moving
Average
Convergence
Divergence
(MACD)
indicators
swinging
into
negative
trajectory.

The
100-day
SMA
threshold
has
been
breached,
intensifying
the
bearish
tone.
The
next
potential
backstop
for
further
declines
could
be
noted
at
the
200-day
SMA
level,
providing
a
critical
bottom
for
the
market.

Central
banks
FAQs

Central
Banks
have
a
key
mandate
which
is
making
sure
that
there
is
price
stability
in
a
country
or
region.
Economies
are
constantly
facing
inflation
or
deflation
when
prices
for
certain
goods
and
services
are
fluctuating.
Constant
rising
prices
for
the
same
goods
means
inflation,
constant
lowered
prices
for
the
same
goods
means
deflation.
It
is
the
task
of
the
central
bank
to
keep
the
demand
in
line
by
tweaking
its
policy
rate.
For
the
biggest
central
banks
like
the
US
Federal
Reserve
(Fed),
the
European
Central
Bank
(ECB)
or
the
Bank
of
England
(BoE),
the
mandate
is
to
keep
inflation
close
to
2%.

A
central
bank
has
one
important
tool
at
its
disposal
to
get
inflation
higher
or
lower,
and
that
is
by
tweaking
its
benchmark
policy
rate,
commonly
known
as
interest
rate.
On
pre-communicated
moments,
the
central
bank
will
issue
a
statement
with
its
policy
rate
and
provide
additional
reasoning
on
why
it
is
either
remaining
or
changing
(cutting
or
hiking)
it.
Local
banks
will
adjust
their
savings
and
lending
rates
accordingly,
which
in
turn
will
make
it
either
harder
or
easier
for
people
to
earn
on
their
savings
or
for
companies
to
take
out
loans
and
make
investments
in
their
businesses.
When
the
central
bank
hikes
interest
rates
substantially,
this
is
called
monetary
tightening.
When
it
is
cutting
its
benchmark
rate,
it
is
called
monetary
easing.

A
central
bank
is
often
politically
independent.
Members
of
the
central
bank
policy
board
are
passing
through
a
series
of
panels
and
hearings
before
being
appointed
to
a
policy
board
seat.
Each
member
in
that
board
often
has
a
certain
conviction
on
how
the
central
bank
should
control
inflation
and
the
subsequent
monetary
policy.
Members
that
want
a
very
loose
monetary
policy,
with
low
rates
and
cheap
lending,
to
boost
the
economy
substantially
while
being
content
to
see
inflation
slightly
above
2%,
are
called
‘doves’.
Members
that
rather
want
to
see
higher
rates
to
reward
savings
and
want
to
keep
a
lit
on
inflation
at
all
time
are
called
‘hawks’
and
will
not
rest
until
inflation
is
at
or
just
below
2%.

Normally,
there
is
a
chairman
or
president
who
leads
each
meeting,
needs
to
create
a
consensus
between
the
hawks
or
doves
and
has
his
or
her
final
say
when
it
would
come
down
to
a
vote
split
to
avoid
a
50-50
tie
on
whether
the
current
policy
should
be
adjusted.
The
chairman
will
deliver
speeches
which
often
can
be
followed
live,
where
the
current
monetary
stance
and
outlook
is
being
communicated.
A
central
bank
will
try
to
push
forward
its
monetary
policy
without
triggering
violent
swings
in
rates,
equities,
or
its
currency.
All
members
of
the
central
bank
will
channel
their
stance
toward
the
markets
in
advance
of
a
policy
meeting
event.
A
few
days
before
a
policy
meeting
takes
place
until
the
new
policy
has
been
communicated,
members
are
forbidden
to
talk
publicly.
This
is
called
the
blackout
period.

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