The Canadian dollar hangs in the balance as we count down to the July BOC decision

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There
are
two
probabilities
that
matter
in
Canada
right
now:

1)
A
64%
chance
the
Bank
of
Canada
cuts
rates
on
July
24

The
market
has
tilted
towards
a
cut
in
the
past
two
weeks.
Despite
that,
the
Canadian
dollar
has
strengthened
and
I
think
that’s
instructive.
The
market
is
increasingly
saying
that
the
growth
side
of
the
equation
is
most-important
right
now
and
if
the
BOC
cuts
more
now
to
get
ahead
of
the
curve,
they
ultimately
won’t
have
to
cut
as
deeply
next
year
or
in
2026.
That’s
the
dynamic
I’ll
be
watching
through
the
decision,
though
the
USD
side
of
the
equation
is
also
in
play.

In
terms
of
the
calendar,
there
are
no
speeches
from
the
BOC
scheduled
before
the
meeting
while
the
key
data
will
be
the
July
16
CPI
report
and
the
July
19
retail
sales
report.
I’m
also
keeping
a
close
eye
on
the
real
estate
market,
which
is
struggling.

I
suspect
some
of
the
resilience
in
CAD
is
due
to
a
four-week
rally
in
oil
prices.
Unfortunately,
that
streak
is
likely
to
end
after
two
days
of
selling
to
start
the
week.

2)
Messi?
Never
heard
of
him

Canada
plays
Argentina
in
the
semi-finals
of
the
Copa
America
tonight
and
the
implied
odds
of
Canada
advancing
are
about
18%,
which
sounds
rich.
Even
richer
is
a
rapper
betting
$300,000
on
Canada
winning
it
in
normal
time.