Forecasting the Coming Week: Fed rate cut bets and the ECB should rule the sentiment

In
what
was
another
dreadful
week,
the
Greenback
saw
its
downtrend
gather
further
pace
and
drop
to
multi-week
lows
amidst
the
broad-based
improvement
in
the
risk-associated
universe.
The
FX
galaxy,
in
the
meantime,
continued
to
assess
the
likelihood
of
more
than
one
interest
rate
cut
by
the
Fed,
while
prudence
remained
intact
over
FX
intervention
by
Japanese
officials.
Next
week,
the
ECB
should
maintain
its
policy
rate
unchanged.

The
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY)
met
extra
downside
pressure
and
plummeted
to
five-week
lows
near
the
104.00
zone,
accompanied
by
a
strong
pullback
in
US
yields.
The
NY
Empire
State
Manufacturing
Index
kicks
off
the
week
on
July
15,
while
Retail
Sales,
Business
Inventories
and
the
NAHB
Housing
Market
Index
are
all
expected
on
July
16.
Mortgage
Applications
tracked
by
MBA,
Building
Permits,
Housing
Starts,
Industrial
Production
and
the
Fed
Beige
Book
will
all
be
unveiled
on
July
17.
The
usual
Initial
Jobless
Claims
are
due
on
July
18,
along
with
the
Philly
Fed
Manufacturing
Index,
the
CB
Leading
Index
and
TIC
Flows.

Finally,
EUR/USD
managed
to
revisit
the
1.0900
yardstick,
or
multi-week
tops,
on
the
back
of
further
weakness
in
the
Greenback.
An
Eurogroup
meeting
starts
the
week
on
July
15,
seconded
by
German
Retail
Sales
and
Industrial
Production
in
the
euro
area.
On
July
16,
the
EcoFin
meeting,
along
with
the
ECB
Bank
Lending
Survey
and
the
Economic
Sentiment
tracked
by
the
ZEW
survey
in
Germany
and
the
euro
bloc
are
all
due.
The
final
Inflation
Rate
in
the
euro
area
comes
on
July
17,
prior
to
the

ECB
meeting
and
President
Lagarde’s
press
conference
on
July
18.
 Producer
Prices
in
Germany
and
the
Current
Account
results
in
the
euro
zone
will
close
the
docket
on
July
19.

GBP/USD
rose
to
levels
last
seen
a
year
ago
and
traded
at
shouting
distance
from
the
key
1.3000
threshold
towards
the
end
of
the
week.
The
UK
Inflation
Rate
is
due
on
July
17
ahead
of
the
labour
market
report
on
July
18.
The
GfK
Consumer
Confidence
gauge
will
be
published
on
July
19
followed
by
Public
Sector
Net
Borrowing
and
Retail
Sales.

Another
FX
intervention
dragged

USD/JPY
to
the
low-157.00s
following
recent
peaks
in
levels
just
shy
of
the
162.00
mark.
The
Tertiary
Industry
Index
is
expected
on
July
16
prior
to
the
Reuters
Tankan
Index
on
July
17.
The
Balance
of
Trade
results
and
weekly
Foreign
Bond
Investment
figures
all
come
on
July
18,
ahead
of
the
Inflation
Rate
on
July
19.

AUD/USD
extended
its
march
north
further
and
flirted
with
the
key
0.6800
barrier,
advancing
for
the
fifth
consecutive
week
for
the
first
time
since
the
beginning
of
2022.
The
Westpac
Leading
Index
is
due
on
July
17.
Finally,
the
Australian
labour
market
report
will
take
centre
stage
on
July
18.

Anticipating
Economic
Perspectives:
Voices
on
the
Horizon

• The
  Fed’s
  Powell
  and
  Daly
  are
  due
  to
  speak
  on
  July
  15.
• The
  Fed’s
  Kugler
  speaks
  on
  July
  16.
• The
  RBA’s
  Simon
  and
  the
  Fed’s
  Barkin
  and
  Waller
  speak
  on
  July
  17.
• The
  Fed’s
  Logan
  speaks
  on
  July
  18.
• The
  Fed’s
  Bowman,
  Williams,
  Daly
  and
  Bostic
  speak
  on
  July
  19.

Central
Banks:
Upcoming
Meetings
to
Shape
Monetary
Policies

• The
  Bank
  Indonesia
  (BI)
  meets
  on
  July
  17.
• The
  ECB
  is
  expected
  to
  keep
  rates
  unchanged
  on
  July
  18.